Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48-72 hrs...RTW
Friday, June 23, 2017
Thursday, June 22, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 22, 2017 0440 PM EDT
THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW. WILL BE WATCHING SOME FUTURE WAVES OVER AFRICA IN THE COMING WEEK FOR DEVELOPMENT THO.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 22, 2017 1242 PM EDT
The tropics remain quiet for now. Cindy continues to wind down and remains a rain threat for those areas affected. Check back daily for tropical updates and storm reports from RTW.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
TROPICAL STORM CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 0505 PM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 212034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 93.2W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with a turn toward the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late tonight or early Thursday, then move near or over extreme eastern Texas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeastern Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from oil rigs near the center is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible into tonight from the far western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 21 2017 0340 PM EDT
Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now. Check back daily for updates from Ralph's Tropical Weather.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 1213 PM EDT
Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now. Check back daily for your next update from Ralph's Tropical Weather.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 11:19 AM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 211446 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
CINDY UPDATE JUNE 20, 2017 0522
000 WTNT33 KNHC 202034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis Pass, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today June 20, 2017
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East
southeast wind 6 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance
of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East
southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Jun 21
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat
index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:
Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F.
Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday Jun 22
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East
southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Jun 23
Isolated Storms Day:
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Jun 24
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East
southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind
to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Jun 25
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East
southeast wind to 13 MPH.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows
around 79°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Jun 26
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast
wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA
GULF SYSTEM UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...NHC
SATELLITE REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)
I WANTED TO SEE WHY THERE IS NO CINDY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WHY NO UPGRADE WITH WIND GUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER OVER 50 MPH.
WELL NOT ONLY DOES THIS SYSTEM HAVE AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IT HAS DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS DRYING UP ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) TRYING TO RAP AROUND THE SMALL CIRCULATION CIRCLED ON THESE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. SO UNTIL THEN GUSTY WINDS OFF SHORE AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
IS THERE STILL A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO CINDY? THAT WOULD ALL DEPEND ON THE DRY AIR AND AS THREE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE CLOCK KEEPS TICKING AND TIME COULD RUN OUT. MY ANIMATED GRAPHICS SHOWS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD FADING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH I HAVE SEEN DISORGANIZED SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RTW
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