Monday, July 3, 2017

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 0421 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

Keeping an eye on the low near 3
4° West Latitude for development in the coming days.  Latest satellite animation shows a small circulation obscured by clouds and the showers are becoming more numerous as this system meanders for now at a lower longitude between 08° and 10° North.

Being at these lower Longitudes seems to have help this system a bit since the Sahara Air Layer is north of 12° North Longitude, and this low is within a moist monsoonal trough which is enhancing shower activity around this system.  

NHC is has up the LOW chance to 30% within 48 hrs. and the HIGH chance remains at 70% during the next 5-days.

Stay tuned here for the latest on Storm Invest 94 L

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 STORM INVESTIGATION 94L MAP BY RTW
  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI CORPORATION

TOMORROWS 4 OF JULY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


Hail Point® @HailPoint 8
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.

TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

16
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1140 AM EDT

A tropical wave that was part of a low pressure has detached and is now to the west of the low near 39° West Latitude. The low is now considered STORM INVEST 94L since probabilities for development are rising. The low has been meandering, and is now a bit further south around 09° North Longitude and near 33° West Latitude.  This may be a tad more favorable for development if it begins tracking westward at those low longitutdes and away from the Sahara Air Layer (African dust & dry air ) that is presently north of 12° North Longitude of where the low is located.

High pressure over the Atlantic north of this system will eventually begin steering this low to the west or west-northwest and north of the northern Leeward Islands as most models suggest.  Still to early to say if that forecast will hold because the atmosphere changes constantly.

NHC is giving this system a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs. and has increased to HIGH chance 70% within the next 5-days.

Stayed tuned here daily for the latest of the tropics.  Models are
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI INTELLICAST

Sunday, July 2, 2017

EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0937 PM EDT

The tropical wave near 33° West Latitude has been nearly stationary most of the day.  This wave remains in a area of Sahara dust and dry air and the shower activity has diminished some in the past 8 hours.  This wave has a weak low pressure associated with it and slow development is possible during the coming days as this wave resumes a westward track.  NHC is giving this wave a LOW chance 10% within 48 hours and has increase the MED chance to 60% within the next five days.  The Atlantic high to the north of this wave will help steer this wave toward to west to a west northwest. 

This is a wave to monitor closely into next week as it could move in the Direction of the Lesser Antilles or north of the northern Leeward islands and head toward the East Bahamas.  Most of the models suggest a turn away from the U.S. but some don't.  Still to far out in the future to worry about the track of this system.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





 

TOMORROW'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

4
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0242 PM EDT

The wave is now near 33 west and continues tracking toward the west.  There seems to be more shower activity associated with it but Sahara Dust and dry air is still somewhat hindering development of thunderstorms.  NHC is still giving this wave a LOW chance 10% within the next 48 hours but has increased the MED chance to 50% within the next 5-days.  Stay tuned here for the latest on the tropics.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0236 AM EDT

A tropical wave near 32°-31° west latitude is presently moving through an area of Sahara Air and dust.  Although there seems to be more convection (thunderstorms) showing on the latest satellite imagery, this dry air and dust seems to be hindering development of convection (thunderstorms) at this time.  Models still showing development in the coming days.

NHC is still giving this system a LOW chance 10% of development within 48 hours and a MED chance 40% of development during the next 5-days.  Stay tuned here for the latest of the tropics.

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RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





Saturday, July 1, 2017

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Tonight Jul 1, 2017
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Jul 2
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Jul 3
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Jul 4
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Jul 5
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 6
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Jul 7
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA






 
Local Radar

EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 1, 2017 0750 PM EDT

UPDATE 0800 PM SURFACE MAP INFORMATION UPDATED ON MAP AT 0827 PM EDT
Still monitoring the tropical wave near 30 west that models are suggesting has a chance for tropical cyclone formation.  NHC is now giving this wave a LOW Chance 10% for development within 48 hrs. and a MED chance 40% within the next 5-days.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 1, 2017 1216 PM EDT

NHC is now monitoring the wave I been watching for the past week.  NHC is giving this wave a LOW Chance 0% during the next 48 hrs. and a LOW Chance 20% during the next 5-days.  I will continue to monitor it as now some other models are on board with the GFS model.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



Friday, June 30, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 30, 2017 0407 PM EDT

Still monitoring the wave southwest of the Cape Verde or Cabo Verde Islands west of African coast.  GFS continues to suggest development with this wave.  Not much showing a this time but as long as a model persist with development I will keep watching.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today Jun 30, 2017
Partly cloudy: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH.

Saturday Jul 1
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Jul 2
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind 6 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms Night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Jul 3
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Jul 4
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Jul 5
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 6
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 






Local Radar