FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA DUE TO INVEST 92L

Watches & Warnings

Areal Flood Watch

Issued: 4:03 PM EDT Aug. 24, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning... 

The Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of South Florida, including the following areas, 
  coastal Broward, coastal Collier, coastal Miami-Dade, coastal 
  Palm Beach, far South Miami-Dade, Hendry, inland Broward, 
  inland Collier, inland Miami-Dade, inland Palm Beach, Mainland 
  Monroe, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach. 

* Through Saturday morning

* periods of heavy rainfall are possible across the region in the
  next couple of days. This could cause roadways to become
  impassible. If canals and drainage ways become flooded, it could
  also allow for water to rise high enough to enter some  
  structures, especially in low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

NHC UPDATES RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FOR HARVEY NOT LOOKING GOOD!

HARVEY UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 08/24/17

 ...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West.  Harvey is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday.  Harvey is
then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become
a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas
coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

SOUTH FLORIDA FLOOD POTENTIAL

WPLG Local 10 News‏Verified account @WPLGLocal10 1h1 hour ago

Off & on rain will "add up" over the next several days. An additional 2-5" could accumulate through Sunday. #SoFlo

THIS IS WHY HARVEY CAN BE A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS!

Stu Ostro‏Verified account @StuOstr

Excessive rainfall & #flood threat upcoming in #txwx & possibly elsewhere from lots of tropical moisture w/#Harvey + synoptic pattern

 A lack of steering currents will cause a tropical cyclone to stall over land and dump plenty of moisture over an area which adds up to flooding...RTW

HARVEY A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS 0500 PM EDT AUG 23, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

EYES ON THE TROPICS 0500 PM EDT AUG 23, 2017

Sorry for the late updates home sick with a nasty cold been home in bed most of the day here is my latest update.

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. INVEST 92L POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS  FLORIDA TONIGHT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...RTW

2. HARVEY IS BACK AND IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  HARVEY IS A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS WITH STORM SURGE AND THE HEAVY RAINS. HARVEY'S FORECAST TRACK IS NOT LOOKING EASY AS SOME OF THE MODELS LOOP THIS SYSTEM AROUND AND BACK OUT TO THE GULF.  BELOW I POSTED DAY1-3 RAINFALL PROBABILITIES LOOKING A 5 PLUS INCHES AT RAIN. LOUISIANA MAY SEE SOME FLOODING AS WELL BUT THAT WILL DEPENDS ON HARVEY'S FUTURE TRACK.  HARVEY LOOPING FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO A WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  STAY TUNED TO NHC FOR UPDATES AND LOCAL MEDIA...RTW.   
VISIT MY SITE: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

INVEST 92L FIRING UP STORM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA 1111 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017

Latest satellite imagery show a ball of convection off the southwest coast of Florida.  Invest 92L is almost off the coast or is already off the coast and this could be the beginning of some organization with this system.  Some of the previous model run showed this system organizing slightly off the southwest coast then track northeast across Florida a nd strengthening to a tropical cyclone east of GA and the Carolinas.  Even if it doesn't organize it would have the potential for heavy over Southern Florida during the next few days.  Flood potential for the state so stay tuned to local media and the National Weather Service in Miami....RTW

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST 0419 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017

Tonight Aug 22, 2017

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday Aug 23

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Thursday Aug 24

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday Aug 25

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West southwest wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Saturday Aug 26

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. West southwest wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Sunday Aug 27

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 88°F. West wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Aug 28

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Day: Highs around 88°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. North northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI, FLORIDA

NOAA G-IV JET ON THE WAY TO THE GULF TO SAMPLE ENVIRONMENT TO GET BETTER FIX ON HARVEY FUTURE PATH

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 47m47 minutes ago

WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 3h3 hours ago

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

EYES ON THE TROPICS 0301 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017

1. INVEST92L...Models continue to suggest weak development off the southeast coast of Florida and a track toward the northwest then northward or northeast.  Some models tracks this system across Southern Florida and  the Gulf then back across Florida and a track toward the northeast, and possibly strengthen into a tropical cyclone east of the eastern seaboard.  We will just have to wait and see if this system does mature into a tropical entity. Showers and storms are accumulating this afternoon over the Bahamas and are tracking westward. As this system attempts to get its act together it will more than likely produce a wet environment over Southern Florida.  So the next few days are looking very wet.  You can't rule out localized flooding as this system tracks slowly northwest...RTW

2. INVEST 91L HARVEY continues to organize and now has a high chance for development 90% within 48 hrs. and a 100% within 5-days.  Harvey is a threat for Texas and possibly Louisiana.  models are all over the place but Texas seems to be Harvey's prime target for now...RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net