000 WTNT31 KNHC 012049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Friday, September 1, 2017
IRMA STRONGER AS IT TRACK MORE WEST 0507 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017
...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...
18z MODEL RUN FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0351 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017
Guidance models have shifted a tad toward the left of previous model run. This flip flopping back and forth will happen many times more before we can stat getting tighter and more persistent run. Keep monitoring NHC updates and be ready in case this storm heads your way. Still to far and very uncertain to where it will go....RTW
Intensity model still holding this storm as a cat 4 and I we can't rule out a cat 5...RTW
Intensity model still holding this storm as a cat 4 and I we can't rule out a cat 5...RTW
IRMA 11 AM EDY SEPT 1, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FROECAST MAPS
...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 011449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
12z MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK LEFT OF THE OTHER MODELS
I not going to sit here and speculate where IRMA will end up because its still to far out at sea and there are to many uncertainties. We need to wait until Monday to get a better idea of where this storm may head. As it is now high pressure continues to steer this system west-northwest.
Relax and just think over what you need in your kits, and go over your prep plan with the family in the event a hurricane strikes your area...RTW
Relax and just think over what you need in your kits, and go over your prep plan with the family in the event a hurricane strikes your area...RTW
Thursday, August 31, 2017
IRMA PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORECAST MAPS 1051 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 010239 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
00z MODEL RUN FOR IRMA 0922 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017
We will continued to monitor this dangerous storm as it tracks toward the west-northwest. Here are the latest model guidance and intensity model. Note that the intensity models no longer suggest a Cat five in this 00z model run.
IRMA RAPIDLY INTESIFYING COULD BE THE FIRST CAT FIVE OF THE 2017 HURRICANE SEASON 5 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017
000 WTNT31 KNHC 312031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday, and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
18z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTESITY MODEL 0302 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017
I STILL SEE THE SAME TREND WITH THE MODELS. THAT UPWARD SLOPE THAT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IS PROBABLY RELATED TO A STRONG LOW PART OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS IS WHAT USE TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 / INVEST 92L. THESE MODELS ARE PROBABLY DEPICTING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH LEFT BEHIND BY THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER THEY MAY BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT A STRONG HURRICANE CAN TEND TO BUILD ITS OWN HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH SUCH AS ANDREW DID IN 1992. THIS WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 5-DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ANYWHERE.
INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES/ NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IRMA.
INTENSITY MODELS ARE MOST SAYING A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE BUT 1 MODEL IS NOW SUGGESTING A RARE CAT 5.
STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON IRMA...RTW
AS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER THEY MAY BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT A STRONG HURRICANE CAN TEND TO BUILD ITS OWN HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH SUCH AS ANDREW DID IN 1992. THIS WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 5-DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ANYWHERE.
INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES/ NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IRMA.
INTENSITY MODELS ARE MOST SAYING A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE BUT 1 MODEL IS NOW SUGGESTING A RARE CAT 5.
STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON IRMA...RTW
IRMA 11 AM EDT AUG 31, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORCAST MAPS
...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 311448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
IRMA 12z MODEL RUN 1010 AM EDT AUG 31, 2017
I CONTINUE TO SEE THAT ROLLER COASTER SLOPE IN THE MODEL RUN. THAT DOWN SLOPE TOWARDS THE 5 -DAY PERIOD IS MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER IRMA AND FORCING THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK. IF THE FORECAST IS CORRECT AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS, THIS COULD BE AN IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.
IRMA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CAN BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME. IRMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 5-DAYS AND COULD REACH CAT 4 STATUS. THIS STORM SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY!
INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.
IRMA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CAN BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME. IRMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 5-DAYS AND COULD REACH CAT 4 STATUS. THIS STORM SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY!
LATE TROPIC UPDATE 1200 AM EDT 08/31/17
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 92.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee Valley region on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/ Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across these areas. A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts of Tennessee. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 310231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 ...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 32.2W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 32.2 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Thursday, and this general motion should continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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