Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Monday, September 4, 2017

BRTYAN NORCROSS EVENING IRMA UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017

Fierce Cat 4 HURRICANE IRMA is, unfortunately, on track. The center of the storm is forecast to be south of the Keys on Saturday, and then begin a move to the north. It is impossible to know how strong the storm will be - it will depend on how it interacts with the Cuban landmass plus other factors. Therefore it is impossible to say exactly what path the core of the storm - the strongest winds - will take.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.

HURRICANE IRMA 11 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West.  Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico.  These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Here you can see a shift northward with NHC forecast track the Florida keys in the path of this major storm. The Red line is the present position for 11 pm advisory as see above.

I PREPARED THIS A LONG TIME AGO AND IT HAS GOOD INFORMATION FOR PLANNING AND PREP

CLICK ON PDF FILE FOR PLANNING PREP BY Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
file:///C:/Users/Ralph/Documents/Planning%20and%20Preparation.pdf

CALIBRATED EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE INDICATES 40% CHANCE FOR MAJOR STORM WINDS IN FLORIDA

Craig Setzer CBS4 and Conor liked

‏Verified account @MJVentrice

The latest Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles indicate a 40% chance for Major Hurricane Force Winds in South Florida via #Irma next weekend/week

IRMAD 00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017

MODELS STILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH WITH SOME EAST OF FLORIDA MODELS MINUS CLP5 THAT IS A HISTORICAL MODEL OF PAST STORM TRACKS.

THE HWFI MODEL WHICH I BEEN FOLLOWING IS NOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE HMON HAS NOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY WHERE THE HWFI IS A PRESENT. IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA AS I SEE IT NOW UNLESS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN EARLIER AND HELPS KEEP IRMA OFFSHORE.

INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS IRMA AS A CAT 4 AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND ONE MODEL SUGGEST CAT 5 IRMA. THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WHAT IS A STATE OF EMERGENCY?

‏ @bnorcross

To be clear, the State of Emergency in Florida simply allows the state to take appropriate prep steps. There is no emergency in FL. #Irma

WSVN 7 News‏Verified account @wsvn

.@FLGovScott has declared a state of emergency for Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma http://wsvn.com/news/local/state-of-emergency-declared-for-florida/ …

IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwestward late Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward
Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands.  These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands during the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WAVE HEIGHTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 30FT

‏Verified account @NHC_TAFB

Wave height forecast for Wed PM from #HurricaneIrma has seas near 30 ft offshore N Puerto Rico and 12 ft seas over 400 nMi from center

BRYAN'S NORCROSS IRMA UPDATE FROM THIS MORNING

Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.

6 hrs ·

Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days.

Attached is an excellent list from the National Weather Service in Miami, but I have a few suggested changes and additions:
1. For a big storm like Irma, you need enough water to drink for 7 days. The water does NOT have to be bottled. You can simply buy water containers and fill them with tap water.
2. Get a plastic sheet to line the tub. Then you can fill your tub with water without it leaking out. You'll use this to flush the toilet and for basic cleaning if the water goes out.
3. Have enough food on hand to eat for 7 days - food bars and other packaged food is good.
4. Buy a large number of Ziploc-like plastic bags - large and small. You'll use them to protect papers and other valuables AND you'll fill them 3/4 full of water and stuff the freezer full. Do that by midweek to be sure they are frozen when/if the power goes out over the weekend. It will keep the refrigerator colder. Do NOT set your fridge on the lowest setting.
5. Get a portable radio that receives AM and FM. NOAA radio is good, but doesn't get you information on evacuations and other instructions. Get batteries.
6. Get LED flashlights and/or lanterns. They run forever on fewer batteries. But you still need plenty of extra batteries.
7. Get large plastic bags. They are invaluable for keeping valuable things dry if you have a leak.
8. Get large plastic boxes. If you put your valuables, photos, and papers in plastic bags inside the boxes, they will likely be okay.
9. Get plastic sheeting and plenty of duct tape.
10. Do your laundry this week!
Now is the time to review these lists and THINK. What are you going to do if the storm comes? I would take action on getting supplies now. There is nothing on the lists that you can't keep and use.
Hurricane Irma is strengthening and on an ominous path. Full preparation should be underway in the northern Leeward Islands and will be needed very soon in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern D.R./Haiti, and the Bahamas.
In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps.

18z MODEL RUN 0200 PME EDT SEPT 4, 2017

Here are the latest 18z model run for Irma. I still don't see a curve northward with none of the Hurricane Center models or forecast track. While some of the models continue with that turn northward. So far the NHC forecast and models have had straight track and no turns. Still to early so keep monitoring and be hurricane ready.

18z Model Run

18z Hurricane Center Models

EURO 12z CAT 4 OR 5 IRMA NEAR IN BAHAMAS

‏Verified account @RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z model updating ... showing powerful Cat 4/5 Hurricane #Irma in Bahamas away from Cuban coast middle Friday

FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BE PREPARED

I am still seeing a 90° turn to the north toward Florida and this cannot be ignored. We have had past major storms take a path similar to this in the past. I know as the storm tracks further west the models will adjust accordingly and that turn may be out over the Gulf threatening the Florida Pan Handle. So just keep monitoring and be ready in case it does head your way.

HURRICANE IRMA 11 AM EDT UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041447
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin
Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the west
is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near
or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands during the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TRACK WITH RED LINE OVER CUBA IS NHC LATEST 11AM EDT FORECAST POSITION