ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CONTINUES PASSING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 66.8W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will continue to pass just north of Puerto Rico tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Water levels in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands will gradually subside tonight and early Thursday. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions will continue to spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by late Thursday with tropical storm conditions by early Thursday. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northern Leeward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southwest Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches. Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
HURRICANE IRMA 11PM EDT SEPT 6, 2017
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CONTINUES PASSING JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...
IRMA UPDFATE 0500 PM EDT
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 062055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.4W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will pass just north of Puerto Rico tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) has been recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels in the Leeward Islands will gradually subside tonight. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday with tropical storm conditions by late tonight. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northern Leeward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southwest Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches. Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1134 AM EDT SEPT 6, 2017
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 061448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for for the coast of Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince. The government of France has discontinued all warnings for Guadeloupe. The government of Antigua has discontinued all warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 64.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the Virgin Islands very soon, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue today within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and and Haiti on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
MY ANALYSIS THIS MORNING (NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST)
Here is a quick update of what I am seeing that may be hope for Florida.
As you well know I been sharing with you the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON model run and checking for trends and shifts in the model run because of the trough digging south and east.
Last night the surface map showed the high pressure ridge over northern Florida and the front stationary and draped almost horizontally. Then I notice the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON that were trending west-northwest now trending north over Florida. I also noticed other models off the the right and over the Bahamas. So I thought okay it does not look good for Florida but the other models are out over the Bahamas so NHC forecast track will adjust over night over Florida and if the HWFI and HWRF start shifting to the right like the others this mean the High pressure ridge is shifting east because the trough is also tracking south and east pushing on the high. So this morning Model HWFI shifted way out over the Bahamas and this caught my attention. So I went to the surface map and that confirmed that shift to the right of the models. There high pressure ridge has indeed shifted to the east because the trough continues to dip south and east. There is now an opening along the east coast for Irma to move into. Lets just hope I'm correct and the trough continues dipping south and east to keep this
As you well know I been sharing with you the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON model run and checking for trends and shifts in the model run because of the trough digging south and east.
Last night the surface map showed the high pressure ridge over northern Florida and the front stationary and draped almost horizontally. Then I notice the HWFI, HWRF and the HMON that were trending west-northwest now trending north over Florida. I also noticed other models off the the right and over the Bahamas. So I thought okay it does not look good for Florida but the other models are out over the Bahamas so NHC forecast track will adjust over night over Florida and if the HWFI and HWRF start shifting to the right like the others this mean the High pressure ridge is shifting east because the trough is also tracking south and east pushing on the high. So this morning Model HWFI shifted way out over the Bahamas and this caught my attention. So I went to the surface map and that confirmed that shift to the right of the models. There high pressure ridge has indeed shifted to the east because the trough continues to dip south and east. There is now an opening along the east coast for Irma to move into. Lets just hope I'm correct and the trough continues dipping south and east to keep this
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 PM EDT SEPT 5, 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 61.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 5, 2017
HURRICANE IRMA 0500 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 5, 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...
000 WTNT21 KNHC 052051 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL AS CUBA... THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 240SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 59.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
18z MODEL RUN AND 12Z MODEL RUN FOR COMPARING
Well we are see more model on the right of the previous track. However, still not confident with those tracks. NHC track holding about the same.
18z Model Run
12z Model run
HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSION FROM 11 AM EDT
000 WTNT41 KNHC 051446 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Irma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer Irma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in place over the western Atlantic during the next several days and Irma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of remainder of the forecast period. Around day 5, a shortwave trough dropping southward over the central United States is expected to begin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to gain some latitude. The new NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous forecast. Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center. Residents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations very soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the easternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to those areas on Thursday and Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE IRMA 11AM EDT ADVISORY SEPT 5, 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 051445 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Monday, September 4, 2017
BRTYAN NORCROSS EVENING IRMA UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017
Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.
6 hrs ·
Fierce
Cat 4 HURRICANE IRMA is, unfortunately, on track. The center of the
storm is forecast to be south of the Keys on Saturday, and then begin a
move to the north. It is impossible to know how strong the storm will
be - it will depend on how it interacts with the Cuban landmass plus
other factors. Therefore it is impossible to say exactly what path the
core of the storm - the strongest winds - will take.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.
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