Wednesday, September 20, 2017

MARIA UPDATE 1135 PM EDT SEPT 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten.

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
inland over Puerto Rico near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 66.5
West.  Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico during
the next couple of hours.  The center will then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday
and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous
major hurricane through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions starting in the hurricane
warning area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
evening.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

TORNADOES:  Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

THE EYE:  Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 



 

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

MARIA 1100 PM EDT UPDATE 9/19/17

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA NEARING ST. CROIX... ...CORE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA
NEARING ST. CROIX...
...CORE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.7 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday
night, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the next couple of hours, then
cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico.  Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the area of
hurricane-force winds has increased in size.  Hurricane-force winds
now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb (26.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight.  Tropical storm
and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and
will spread over Puerto Rico overnight.  Hurricane conditions are
expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to
6 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

MARIA STORM UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/19/17


...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVER PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti
* West of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.  Additional watches and warnings may be required
tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 64.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over the U. S.
Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and then
pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico.  Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the
hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this evening, and
spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are occuring over the
remainder of the Leeward Islands, and are spreading over the Virgin
Islands at this time.  Tropical storm conditions should spread over
Puerto Rico during the next several hours.  Hurricane conditions are
expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Thursday in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued hourly in between these
advisories.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 




18Z MODEL RUN FOR MARIA AND JOSE 0310 PM EDT SEPT 19, 2017

MODELS ARE UNFORTUNATELY IN AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL OVER PUERTO RICO.  AFTER THAT A BRUSH WITH NORTHEAST COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAYBE A BRUSH WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTH.  BEYOND FORECAST BECOMES SPREADS OUT...RTW


JOSE STILL STUCK BUT COULD LOOP BACK TOWARD THE U.S.  AS MARIA TRACKS NORTHWARD.


11AM UPDATE FOR MARIA AND JOSE SEPT 19, 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 191447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea today, and then pass near or over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane
until it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).  NOAA buoy 42060, located a little west of the center,
recently reported 1-min average winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a
wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 927 mb (27.37 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this
morning, and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are occuring over the
remainder of the Leeward Islands, and should spread into the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven






...JOSE MAINTAINING STATUS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 191458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...JOSE MAINTAINING STATUS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 71.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from New Haven to
Watch Hill.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
by an an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
36.5 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue
through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight.  On
the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well
offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the
east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of
southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should
begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).  NOAA Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North
Carolina border or about 160 miles west of the center of Jose,
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard,
Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday.  This rainfall could cause
isolated flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


 

Monday, September 18, 2017

HURRICANE UPDATE 1100 PM EDT 9/17/2017

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE RESUMES A NORTHWARD MOTION...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 71.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
* New Haven to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This general motion is expected to
continue through Tuesday with a turn to the northeast forecast on
Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is
forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula early
Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday but Jose
should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. This rainfall
could cause isolated flooding.  Jose is also expected to produce
total rain accumulations up to an inch or so along the northern
mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



 
...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it approaches the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Ham radio reports indicate significant damage to
structures has occurred in Dominica.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is
924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should continue over Dominica during
the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions should spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands
tonight and early Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions should spread
through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area Tuesday
and Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in
St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in
the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

HURRICANE UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/18/17


...JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from Fenwick Island,
Delaware to Fire Island Inlet, New York.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
* New Haven to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 71.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected during
the next day or so.  A turn to the northeast is expected to occur on
Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is
forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and
Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday.  This rainfall
could cause isolated flooding.  Jose is also expected to produce
total rain accumulations up to 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic coast,
and from southeast New York to coastal Maine.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 
 

 
...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra,
and Vieques.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for that island to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata, and a Tropical Storm Watch
west of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system.  Additional watches and warnings may be required later
tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
by satellite imagery and data from the French radar on Martinique
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.7 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Maria
is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica,
Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical
storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward
Islands.  Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday
through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight,
and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 





 

18Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWS JOSE STUCK WITH NO WHERE TO GO

Jose will be a in a meandering state with no place to go!


Maria on track for a strike on the poor Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. 

COULD HURRICANE BETSY TRACK REPEAT ITSELF IF MARIA GETS BLOCKED?

I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH MARIA BUT BACK IN 1965 SEPT 13 HURRICANE BETSY WAS THOUGHT TO BE BY PASSING THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKED THE CYCLONES NORTHWARD TRACK AND LOOPED IT BACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  DEPENDING ON WHAT JOSE IS DOING TO THE NORTH OF MARIA AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND THAT TIME WILL DETERMINE MARIA'S FUTURE TRACK.  AS IT IS NOW IT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM FLORIDA.  HOWEVER, IF MARIA STALLS OUT A MEANDERS IN CIRCLES WELL ALL BETS ARE OFF IF HIGH PRESSURE STEERS THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST.  BRYAN NORCROSS WAS MENTIONING OF A FUZZY LONG RANGE FORECAST AND ANY THING COULD HAPPEN WITH UNCERTAIN TRACKS.

HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF A HURRICANE NAME BETSY BACK IN 1965 SEPT 13