STORM INVEST 99L 1045 PM EDT 9/28/17

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles west-northwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lee, located over
the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-northeast of
Bermuda.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida
Straits is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low.  A weak area of low pressure is likely to form
from this weather system near the Florida Straits on Friday, and it
is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the Florida
Peninsula through Saturday.  Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for some development during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MONITORING INVEST 99L NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST

 STORM INVESTIGATION 99L

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST THAT MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE A FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE STATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES  ON THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE WE HAVE MARIA FINALLY LEAVING AND LEE REMAINS A NO THREAT TO LAND HURRICANE.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO IN OCTOBER FOR UNWELCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1216 PM EDT 09/28/17

STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.  I SAY WEAK DEVELOPMENT BUT IT COULD BE A GUSTY AND WET DISTURBANCE THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA. 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

BRYAN NORCROSS UPDATE ON MARIA AND CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE

Bryan Norcross added 2 new photos.

Thursday update on TROPICAL STORM MARIA and FUTURE TROPICS: Maria is moving away from the U.S. East Coast. The high winds have already moved offshore, but the ocean will remain agitated and dangerous as strong swells continue to impact the coast. The elevated water levels around the Outer Banks will slowly decrease, but some minor sound-side flooding could still occur today at high tide. Maria is forecast to be a memory by the end of the weekend.
Cooler air will move in as Maria moves out, though it’s not the end of the oddly warm fall in the East. Another round of unusually warm weather is coming.

Over the weekend, we’ll keep an eye on the waters around Florida. A cold front moving south may meet up with a weak disturbance in the tropics to form a low-pressure system with some tropical-development potential. The odds are not high that a significant storm would form, but it’s not impossible that we get a rainy, gusty disturbance.

In the long range, another unusually strong and hot high-pressure system is forecast to cover a good part of the Midwest, East, and Southeast. If the forecast is right, on the south side of the heat bubble, a noticeably strong, persistent east wind will set up over Florida, and south of that the atmospheric pattern could be favorable for tropical development. That would be at the end of next week.
Stay tuned. Hurricane season isn’t over yet.

MARIA 05 PM EDT UPDATE 9/27/17

...MARIA BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...MARIA SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 72.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape
Hatteras.

All Storm Surge Watches and Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Hatteras to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

These warnings will likely be discontinued this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 72.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue tonight.  Maria is forecast to accelerate
east-northeastward on Thursday through Friday.  On the forecast
track, Maria will move away from the coast of North Carolina
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through the next few hours.  These winds should diminish later
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the North Carolina Outer Banks
will gradually subside tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

EYES OF THE CARIBBEAN DISTURABANCE INTO NEXT WEEK

Quick review of the new Storm Invest in the Caribbean I been mentioning for the past week of so. Although some models do not suggest strong development and more like a rain event, we need to monitor this area closely seeing how this season has been thus far.

The sea surface temps in this region are 30-31°C or 86-88°F. Perfect fuel for tropical cyclone to develop and strengthen in.

We don't want any surprises and want to be ready specially those in the Florida straits that suffered the most from Irma. Remember this is a closer system to home and if it did develop and strengthen unexpectedly it would not give folks in the Florida straits ample time to get out. Luckily we have a large land mass between this system and Florida.

Upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable north of the Grand Bahamas as this system tracks north-northwest toward the east of Florida maybe that will not give it much time to develop.

I am not trying to hype things up, its just this season, I have learned not to trust, any of these so called weak developing system. Good example of that is baby major Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic. That system was written off then it made a come back and reached major storm status this morning. So please stay tuned to local news via TV or local radio and I will do my best to keep you up to date in the coming days.
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1224 PM EDT 9/27/17

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 56.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1765 MI...2845 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 56.8 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue today.  Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and
accelerate to the northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Slow weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

MARIA 11 AM EDT 9/27/17

...MARIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 271448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...MARIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 72.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Ocracoke
Inlet.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of Ocracoke Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.6 West. Maria is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. Maria is forecast to accelerate
east-northeastward on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast
track, Maria will begin to move away from the coast of North
Carolina later today and tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primary to the northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). An observing site at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through today.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocracoke Inlet to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

TROPICAL STORM MARIA 05 PM EDT 09/26/17

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 73.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight.  A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on
Wednesday, and a turn toward the east-northeast is anticipated on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east
of the coast of North Carolina during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Maria is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  NOAA buoy 41025
located about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h).  A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently reported
at Manteo, North Carolina.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Sept 26

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 95°F. West wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday Sep 27

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. West northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 78°F. South southwest wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday Sep 28

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. Northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Friday Sep 29

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 77°F. South wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Saturday Sep 30

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 92°F. South wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 79°F. North northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 1

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 8 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Oct 2

Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 11 to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

 

HOW MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS EXPERIENCES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS?

THIS GRAPHICS SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE OUTER BANKS AND MARIA TRACKS EAST OF THE BANKS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1223 PM EDT 9/26/17

WILL BE MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN, GULF AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EVEN THOUGH AFTER SEPTEMBER THE FOCUS IS  ON THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF, AND NOT SO MUCH THE ATLANTIC.  REASONING FOR THIS IS, BECAUSE A WEAK LA NINA HAS KICKED IN AND THE ATLANTIC WATER REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AT THIS TIME.  THIS MAKES THE ATLANTIC CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THERE IS ANOTHER PEAK IN OCTOBER BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN.  BUT SEEING HOW MUCH ENERGY IS LEFT BEHIND WE COULD SEE A LATE BUSY ENDING TO THE 2017 SEASON.  BE HURRICANE READY! 
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net