1. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA THAT IS NOT A THREAT TO LAND.
2. I AM MONITORING A LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT SOME MODELS SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TRACK WESTWARD. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE THIS WEEK.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Monday, October 9, 2017
Sunday, October 8, 2017
Saturday, October 7, 2017
NATE UPDATE 04 PM EDT
...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 072050 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 89.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast later tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will pass near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River during the next few hours, then make landfall along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Nate could still become a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale this evening. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recent reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) at an elevation of 125 feet. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
MY TRACK MAP SOFTWARE IS ACTING UP SO I AM USING NHC MAPS INSTEAD FOR NOW
...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 071454 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 88.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nate is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches the Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km), primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area this evening and tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible beginning late this afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
NATE STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE 1100 PM EDT 10/06/17
...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 070255 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 86.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch along the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a turn toward north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast Saturday evening or Saturday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the time Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) was recently reported in Isabel Rubio in Pinar del Rio, Cuba. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Friday, October 6, 2017
TROPICAL STORM NATES 0500 PM EDT UPDATE 10/06/17
...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 062054 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 85.7 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move near or over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move make landfall over the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday. Reports from NOAA buoy 42056, located just north and east of the center, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a 1-minute average wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). NOAA buoy 42056 reported a minimum pressure of 995.6 mb as the center of Nate passed nearby. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador: Lingering inflow bands will bring additional 2-4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...4 to 6 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
NATE 11 EDT UPDATE 10/6/2017
...NATE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 061455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 85.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, and for the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, and from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Provence of Pinar del Rio and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Provence of the Isle of Youth. The Meteorological Service of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and move near or over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move near or over the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Thursday, October 5, 2017
NATE 0500 PM EDT 10/05/17
...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 052045 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations into Saturday: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center of Nate makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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