000 WTNT31 KNHC 070255 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 86.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch along the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a turn toward north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast Saturday evening or Saturday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the time Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) was recently reported in Isabel Rubio in Pinar del Rio, Cuba. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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