MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today 12, 2017

Day: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 91°F. Northeast wind 14 to 19 MPH, gusting to 26 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind 8 to 18 MPH, gusting to 24 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Friday Oct 13

Day: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Saturday Oct 14

Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind 8 to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Sunday Oct 15

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 78°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Oct 16

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 91°F. East northeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 78°F. East northeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Tuesday Oct 17

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 91°F. East northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77°F. East northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Wednesday Oct 18

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. East northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FL

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0330 PM EDT 10/12/17

1. OPHELIA HANGING IN THERE AND HAS BEEN MEANDERING  STUCK BETWEEN TWO HIGHS IN THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.  OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

2. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50° WEST IS PRODUCING STRONG STORMS ALONG THE WAVES AXIS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1134 AM EDT 10/11/17

1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEARING COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME.  OPHELIA IS NOT A THREAT TO LAND AT THIS TIME.

2. A MID TO UPPER LEVER LOW NEAR 75°WEST IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCE.  SQUALLY CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

ELSE WHERE IN THE TROPICS ALL REMAINS QUIET.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

MIAMI AND VICNITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Oct 9, 2017

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 96°F. East wind 6 to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 89°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Tuesday Oct 10

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 79°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Wednesday Oct 11

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 92°F. East northeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 78°F. East northeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Thursday Oct 12

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 90°F. Northeast wind 11 to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77°F. Northeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Friday Oct 13

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 91°F. North northeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77°F. North northeast wind 8 to 13 MPH, gusting to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Saturday Oct 14

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 93°F. North northeast wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 78°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 15

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1119 AM EDT 10/09/17

1. NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA THAT IS NOT A THREAT TO LAND.

2. I AM MONITORING A LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT SOME MODELS SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TRACK WESTWARD.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE THIS WEEK.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0457 PM EDT 10/8/17

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

NATE UPDATE 04 PM EDT

 ...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 072050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 89.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle.

The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from west of Grand Isle to
Morgan City.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from west of Morgan
City to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 89.1 West.  Nate is moving
toward the north-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A turn toward the
north and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the
next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
later tonight.  A motion toward the northeast is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will pass near or
over the mouth of the Mississippi River during the next few hours,
then make landfall along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana or
Mississippi tonight.  After landfall, the center of Nate is expected
to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late
tonight through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Nate
could still become a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale this evening.  Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center.  The NOAA automated
station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recent reported sustained
winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) at an
elevation of 125 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with
tropical storm conditions currently spreading onshore.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
tonight and Sunday morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the
western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi
through Sunday afternoon.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MY TRACK MAP SOFTWARE IS ACTING UP SO I AM USING NHC MAPS INSTEAD FOR NOW

...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. Nate is moving
rapidly toward the north-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening.  A turn
toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move
across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall
along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph
(150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall, and Nate is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches
the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km),
primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next
several hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and
tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible beginning late
this afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

NATE STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE 1100 PM EDT 10/06/17

...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 070255
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 86.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch along
the Yucatan peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.4 West.  Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through late Saturday.  A
turn toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a
turn toward north-northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on
Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast
Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected
through Saturday up until the time Nate makes landfall along the
northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.  A wind gust of 52 mph (84
km/h) was recently reported in Isabel Rubio in Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few
hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg