TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2017 0404 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on
Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Strong upper-level winds associated
with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable
by Sunday.   Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.  These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TOMORROW'S SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 10

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2017 0955 AM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Close proximity to land is likely to limit
development of this system during the next 24 hours.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system
to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday.  Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next couple of days.  These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

THIS MORNING WAKE UP TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE

It was nice for a change to wake up to fall like temps here in Florida.  Here is the temp map and water vapor imagery that shows drier conditions over us.  Enjoy because it is short lived until Sunday night into Monday morning when we have another front moving in that will drag tropical moisture from the Caribbean over a portion of South Florida this weekend.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2017 0403 PM EDT

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
have become a little better organized over the past few hours. Close
proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for
the next day or so.  However, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this
week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold
front will likely prevent further development by Sunday.  Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America and Cuba during the next several days. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2017 1045 AM EDT

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters.  Close proximity to
land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day
or so.  However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as
it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front
will likely prevent further development by Sunday.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Oct 24, 2017

Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70°F. South wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Oct 25

Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 76°F. Northwest wind 6 to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 59°F. Northwest wind to 8 MPH.

Thursday Oct 26

Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 77°F. North northwest wind to 10 MPH.

Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 69°F. North northeast wind to 8 MPH.

Friday Oct 27

Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. East northeast wind 9 to 15 MPH.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74°F. East northeast wind to 14 MPH, gusting to 19 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Saturday Oct 28

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 75°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 26 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Sunday Oct 29

Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 82°F. Southwest wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64°F. North northwest wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Oct 30

Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 75°F. North northwest wind to 16 MPH.

Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 64°F. North wind to 14 MPH.

 FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2017 1024 PM EDT

A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the
adjacent Caribbean waters is producing widespread, but disorganized,
showers and thunderstorms.  Close proximity to land is likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur later this week while the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America during the next several days. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2017 0107 AM EDT

The Caribbean system is now an elongated low pressure area.  Forecast guidance models suggest that this system will track north and east as it gets scooped up by a cold front that will track east across Florida.  As the front approaches models suggest that this low will merge with the front and will be dragged across Cuba and the South Florida.  So far non of the models suggest a strong system but I will continue to monitor it.

Please note that I took Tuesday off from work and will not be doing regular updates.  This is why i am doing a late update at this time.  I will try to post from my phone on blog and Facebook.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 23, 2017 0350 PM EDT

The tropics remain quiet, but still monitoring the Caribbean for possible development by end of this week.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a Low chance 0% within 48 hrs. and a Medium chance 40% within 5days.  Stay tuned here for the latest on the tropics...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

OTHERS TALKING ABOUT CARIBBEAN SO CALLED SYSTEM!

GulfCoastStormCenter‏ @GCSCWX

ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC all showing development of a tropical cyclone in the West Caribbean late this week; send it toward FL and Bahamas.