000 ABNT20 KNHC 271719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
Friday, October 27, 2017
EYES ON THE TROPICS OCT 27, 2017 0339 PM EDT
EYES ON THE TROPICS OCT 27, 2017 1004 PM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271123 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC AC 270524
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least a marginal risk of severe weather may
impact southern Florida and the Keys late Saturday afternoon and
evening.
...South Florida...
A positive-tilt synoptic trough currently from the upper MS Valley
to the southern Rockies will undergo further amplification. By 12Z
Saturday this feature will extend from the Great Lakes to the lower
MS Valley and will advance slowly east during the day. Downstream
cold front will stretch from a surface low over the Great Lakes to
the central Gulf early Saturday and approach the Atlantic seaboard
by the end of this period. Preceding the upper trough, a
southern-stream perturbation accompanied by a weak surface low will
emerge from the Caribbean. A warm front will lift north through
southern FL in advance of the low with near 70F dewpoints spreading
inland contributing to destabilization. However, instability will
remain weak owing to widespread clouds and areas of
showers/thunderstorms. Surface-2 km hodograph size will increase by
early evening over south FL in vicinity of the warm front as the
low-level jet strengthens in association with the approaching
surface low, though winds aloft will remain modest. Given the moist
boundary layer and favorable low-level wind profiles expected to
evolve by Saturday evening, some potential exists for convection
developing in this environment to produce a couple of brief
tornadoes. The anticipated weak thermodynamic environment precludes
more than a marginal risk category at this time.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Event: | Hydrologic Outlook | ||
Alert: | ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A tropical disturbance over the Western Caribbean Sea is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move slowly north northeast and be near South Florida on Saturday. This disturbance will bring deep tropical moisture to the area leading to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts with any training thunderstorms. If this trend continues for South Florida, then a Flood Watch may be needed later today or tonight for Saturday. | ||
Instructions: | |||
Target Area: |
|
Thursday, October 26, 2017
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2017 0404 PM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 26, 2017 0955 AM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system during the next 24 hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next couple of days. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
THIS MORNING WAKE UP TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE
It was nice for a change to wake up to fall like temps here in Florida. Here is the temp map and water vapor imagery that shows drier conditions over us. Enjoy because it is short lived until Sunday night into Monday morning when we have another front moving in that will drag tropical moisture from the Caribbean over a portion of South Florida this weekend.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2017 0403 PM EDT
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
have become a little better organized over the past few hours. Close
proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for
the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this
week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold
front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 25, 2017 1045 AM EDT
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Tonight Oct 24, 2017
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70°F. South
wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Wednesday Oct 25
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around
76°F. Northwest wind 6 to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50
percent.
Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 59°F.
Northwest wind to 8 MPH.
Thursday Oct 26
Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 77°F. North northwest wind
to 10 MPH.
Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 69°F. North northeast wind to 8 MPH.
Friday Oct 27
Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. East northeast wind 9
to 15 MPH.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around
74°F. East northeast wind to 14 MPH, gusting to 19 MPH. Chance of precipitation
30 percent.
Saturday Oct 28
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 84°F.
Heat index around 90°F. East wind 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 75°F.
Southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 26 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Sunday Oct 29
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 82°F.
Southwest wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60
percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64°F. North
northwest wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40
percent.
Monday Oct 30
Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 75°F. North northwest wind
to 16 MPH.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA
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