000 WTNT33 KNHC 291435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well away from the United States and Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the Bahamas has diminished WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Sunday, October 29, 2017
PHILIPPE 11 AM EDT UPDATE OCT 29, 2017
...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED...
PHILIPPE INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0200 AM EDT OCT 29, 2017
...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST...
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290541 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Philippe has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through today. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Saturday, October 28, 2017
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OCT 28, 2017 1100 PM EDT
...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central Bahamas by Sunday morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
So far all the stronger winds are east of the center and most of the stronger storms are over Central Cuba. So far as it looks now if it stays on its present track these stronger storms to the southeast of center will remain away for South Florida. Dry air moving in behind the storm as the front approaches the west coast of Florida. Off and on rains can occur over night and at time maybe heavy some cells could be strong to maybe severe...RTW
18z MODEL RUN OCT 28, 2017 0411 PM EDT
I won't be home for the 0500 PM EDT update so here is the latest position and models for Tropical Depression Eighteen. Track has shifted a bit more to the left we will see if that track continues. At this time it really doesn't matter where it tracks because we are not looking at a major storm here.
This system main concern, is heavy rains and flash flooding, and the possibility of isolated tornado's with some of the severe cells.
Miami-Dade is catching a break from the first batch of rains that is now moved north of the area, but as the low tracks close to us then the rains to our south will increase over the area this evening.
Upper Keys and Southeast Florida is presently still under a tropical storm watch. keep your NOAA weather radio on alert and monitor radio and local media for updates...RTW
This system main concern, is heavy rains and flash flooding, and the possibility of isolated tornado's with some of the severe cells.
Miami-Dade is catching a break from the first batch of rains that is now moved north of the area, but as the low tracks close to us then the rains to our south will increase over the area this evening.
Upper Keys and Southeast Florida is presently still under a tropical storm watch. keep your NOAA weather radio on alert and monitor radio and local media for updates...RTW
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OCT 28, 2017 0834 AM EDT
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEPRESSION BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS IN THE MAKING AS WE SPEAK. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRACKING NORTH OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE STORMS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO'S. STAY TUNED TO RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF PHILIPPE AND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF. SO MARINERS TIE DOWN YOUR VESSELS OR STORE IT IN A SAFE PLACE....RTW
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE STORMS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO'S. STAY TUNED TO RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF PHILIPPE AND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF. SO MARINERS TIE DOWN YOUR VESSELS OR STORE IT IN A SAFE PLACE....RTW
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN UPDATE OCT 28, 2017 0753 AM EDT
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...
000 WTNT33 KNHC 281142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to assess the strength of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
06Z MODEL RUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK:
FLUS42 KMFL 280913 HWOMFL Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 282115- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...Deteriorating Conditions as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Approaches... ...Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon and Evening... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Tonight... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the northwestern Caribbean is forecast to move north-northeast across western Cuba later today, and into the Florida Straits and Northwestern Bahamas late tonight. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from this system are expected to overspread South Florida starting later this morning, and continue through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible today, especially this afternoon and evening. Wind: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, which may produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. In addition, conditions will become hazardous over the local Atlantic and Gulf waters as sustained winds increase with the approach and passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest rainfall may lead to to substantial ponding of water, leading to lane closures on roadways, especially in the most vulnerable areas. Waves: Seas will build to 7 to 11 feet well offshore Miami-Dade County as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to cross through the local Atlantic waters late this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to move quickly away from the region early Sunday morning, followed by another strong cold frontal passage by Sunday afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous conditons over the local Gulf waters, as well as continue hazardous conditions over the local Atlantic waters, into Monday. The Atlantic rip current risk is expected to remain moderate this weekend, with the rip current risk over the Gulf increasing behind the front early next week. Cool and dry conditions behind the front may allow low temperatures Monday morning to drop into the mid to upper 40s across interior Palm Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties. RH values may also drop into the 30-35 percent range across portions of South Florida Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. $$During a tropical cyclone situation, view the Hurricane Local Statement for additional hazard details.
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