...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...
000 WTNT33 KNHC 281142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to assess the strength of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK:
FLUS42 KMFL 280913 HWOMFL Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 282115- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...Deteriorating Conditions as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Approaches... ...Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon and Evening... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Tonight... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the northwestern Caribbean is forecast to move north-northeast across western Cuba later today, and into the Florida Straits and Northwestern Bahamas late tonight. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from this system are expected to overspread South Florida starting later this morning, and continue through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible today, especially this afternoon and evening. Wind: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, which may produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. In addition, conditions will become hazardous over the local Atlantic and Gulf waters as sustained winds increase with the approach and passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest rainfall may lead to to substantial ponding of water, leading to lane closures on roadways, especially in the most vulnerable areas. Waves: Seas will build to 7 to 11 feet well offshore Miami-Dade County as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to cross through the local Atlantic waters late this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to move quickly away from the region early Sunday morning, followed by another strong cold frontal passage by Sunday afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous conditons over the local Gulf waters, as well as continue hazardous conditions over the local Atlantic waters, into Monday. The Atlantic rip current risk is expected to remain moderate this weekend, with the rip current risk over the Gulf increasing behind the front early next week. Cool and dry conditions behind the front may allow low temperatures Monday morning to drop into the mid to upper 40s across interior Palm Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties. RH values may also drop into the 30-35 percent range across portions of South Florida Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. $$During a tropical cyclone situation, view the Hurricane Local Statement for additional hazard details.
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