POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN OCT 27, 2017 1053 PM EDT

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 18.2 North, longitude 84.4 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster northward motion is
expected Saturday morning, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through
the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night.

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven