RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY-1 THRU 3

So far at my house over night 0.64 inches of rain not that bad.  This system center is mostly over Cuba and has lost most of the moisture ahead of it.  Should not be a washout in anyway.  However, do expect every so often a fast moving showers.  So far on latest radar shows the heaviest concentration of showers is over the Florida Straits and Keys.  Lightning has remain concentrated south of Haiti and North of Jamaica. So as for the chance of thunderstorms with these cells its Low chance on the west side of the upper low.  There still is a chance for a thunderstorm to pop up during the heating of the day but once again this system seems to be pretty benign at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 Day-1 thunderstorm outlook

 Day-2 Thunderstorm outlook

 Day-3 Thunderstorm outlook

RAIN BANDS FROM THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND

Outer bands from this mid to upper level low are moving onshore this evening.  You can expect brief heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning with stronger cells.  The low is partially over Cuba and the Atlantic waters. Development is not likely at this time.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DAY-1,2 AND 3

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA

So far it does not look like a significant rainfall event at this time.  Here is Day-1, 2 and 3 rainfall outlook.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PROGESSING WESTWARD

A mid to upper level disturbance continues progressing westward.  Squally conditions are moving over the Bahamas.  The Low center seems to be close to the north coast of Cuba or partially over it according to latest water vapor imagery.  Showers and storms are trying to rap around the broad center of circulation.  You can see showers and storms along the western edge of the circulation.  So far rain is in the forecast for Florida over the weekend as this system approaches the Peninsula.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

 Upper Level Water Vapor

 Middle Level Water Vapor

 Lower Level Water Vapor

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SITE IS UP MONITORING DISTURBANCE

I HAVE ACTIVATED SITE EARLY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BEING MONITORED.  I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ACTIVATE SITE IN MAY 15, 2018 FOR WAVE TRACKING BUT THIS SYSTEM POPPED IN EARLY.  LINK IS BELOW...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATION FROM COD.EDU

NHC SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FOR THE WEEKEND

An upper level disturbance tracking west toward Florida could enhance showers and storms over the weekend.  Period of brief heavy rains with gusty winds and possible lightning during the next few days and increasing as the low moves toward the southern half of Florida.  Dry air ahead of this system due to high pressure will prevent development from occurring.  This is a gale center at most which could kick up winds over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida Atlantic waters.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR MAY 15, 2018

Just a heads up that starting May 15, 2018 I begin tracking tropical waves across the Atlantic.  I will post on a daily basis the waves on the RTW website, to keep you up to date on wave activity that may have a potential for development as they track off the African coast across the Atlantic basin.  I will post link to website here when updates are published for your viewing.  So see you here May 15, 2018.
RTW

STORM WARNING

267
WUUS54 KFWD 212026
SVRFWD
TXC237-363-503-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0097.180421T2026Z-180421T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Young County in north central Texas...
  Southwestern Jack County in north central Texas...
  Northern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Possum
  Kingdom State Park, or 9 miles south of Graham, moving east at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mineral Wells, Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 9864 3307 9799 3300 9799 3300 9805
      3274 9806 3284 9858 3295 9858 3296 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 273DEG 23KT 3296 9856

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PS

DAY-1 TRONADO PROBABILITY

Day-1 Tornado Probability in the southern Plains is at 2% chance.

Day-1 Hail Probability is at 5% and 15%

 Day-1 Strong wind probability 5%

DAY-1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Southern Plains has a better chance for storms and we can see that this is already occurring in that area.  There is a chance for thunderstorms as well over most of Florida.
RTW