RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Saturday, May 5, 2018
LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS
Satellite you see here is infrared and water vapor. Most of the heavy moisture is east and southeast of the weak center.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAY-1 THRU 3
So far at my house over night 0.64 inches of rain not that bad. This system center is mostly over Cuba and has lost most of the moisture ahead of it. Should not be a washout in anyway. However, do expect every so often a fast moving showers. So far on latest radar shows the heaviest concentration of showers is over the Florida Straits and Keys. Lightning has remain concentrated south of Haiti and North of Jamaica. So as for the chance of thunderstorms with these cells its Low chance on the west side of the upper low. There still is a chance for a thunderstorm to pop up during the heating of the day but once again this system seems to be pretty benign at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Day-1 thunderstorm outlook
Day-2 Thunderstorm outlook
Day-3 Thunderstorm outlook
RAIN BANDS FROM THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND
Outer bands from this mid to upper level low are moving onshore this evening. You can expect brief heavy downpours with gusty winds and lightning with stronger cells. The low is partially over Cuba and the Atlantic waters. Development is not likely at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Friday, May 4, 2018
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DAY-1,2 AND 3
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA
So far it does not look like a significant rainfall event at this time. Here is Day-1, 2 and 3 rainfall outlook.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PROGESSING WESTWARD
A mid to upper level disturbance continues progressing westward. Squally conditions are moving over the Bahamas. The Low center seems to be close to the north coast of Cuba or partially over it according to latest water vapor imagery. Showers and storms are trying to rap around the broad center of circulation. You can see showers and storms along the western edge of the circulation. So far rain is in the forecast for Florida over the weekend as this system approaches the Peninsula.
Upper Level Water Vapor
Middle Level Water Vapor
Lower Level Water Vapor
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SITE IS UP MONITORING DISTURBANCE
I HAVE ACTIVATED SITE EARLY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BEING MONITORED. I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ACTIVATE SITE IN MAY 15, 2018 FOR WAVE TRACKING BUT THIS SYSTEM POPPED IN EARLY. LINK IS BELOW...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
NHC SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK
NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic
2m2 minutes ago
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FOR THE WEEKEND
An upper level disturbance tracking west toward Florida could enhance showers and storms over the weekend. Period of brief heavy rains with gusty winds and possible lightning during the next few days and increasing as the low moves toward the southern half of Florida. Dry air ahead of this system due to high pressure will prevent development from occurring. This is a gale center at most which could kick up winds over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida Atlantic waters.
Wednesday, May 2, 2018
MARK YOUR CALENDAR MAY 15, 2018
RTW
Saturday, April 21, 2018
STORM WARNING
267
WUUS54 KFWD 212026
SVRFWD
TXC237-363-503-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0097.180421T2026Z-180421T2130Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Young County in north central Texas...
Southwestern Jack County in north central Texas...
Northern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Possum
Kingdom State Park, or 9 miles south of Graham, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Mineral Wells, Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
&&
LAT...LON 3305 9864 3307 9799 3300 9799 3300 9805
3274 9806 3284 9858 3295 9858 3296 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 273DEG 23KT 3296 9856
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PS
WUUS54 KFWD 212026
SVRFWD
TXC237-363-503-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0097.180421T2026Z-180421T2130Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Young County in north central Texas...
Southwestern Jack County in north central Texas...
Northern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Possum
Kingdom State Park, or 9 miles south of Graham, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Mineral Wells, Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
&&
LAT...LON 3305 9864 3307 9799 3300 9799 3300 9805
3274 9806 3284 9858 3295 9858 3296 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 273DEG 23KT 3296 9856
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PS
DAY-1 TRONADO PROBABILITY
Day-1 Tornado Probability in the southern Plains is at 2% chance.
Day-1 Hail Probability is at 5% and 15%
Day-1 Strong wind probability 5%
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