000 FLUS42 KMFL 251828 HWOMFL Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 228 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 260630- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 228 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH THIS WEEKEND... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially close to the Gulf coast. Cloud-to-ground lightning is the primary threat. Wind: Wind will increase on outer Gulf waters to 20 to 25 knots overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Flooding: Showers, some with locally heavy rainfall, will continue. Some of this rainfall may trigger flooding, particularly late tonight in the Miami area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A Flood watch has been issued Saturday and Sunday for all of South Florida. Deep tropical moisture will bring widespread showers, some with very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all South Florida waters through the weekend. Southeast wind of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to gale force will be hazardous to mariners. In addition, outer Gulf waters will have seas of 6 to 9 feet. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is likely on both Atlantic and Gulf beaches through the holiday weekend. Isolated tornadoes are possible Saturday and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. $$ KONARIK
Friday, May 25, 2018
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY 25, 2018
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
ALBERTO 0500 PM EDT UPDATE MAY 25, 2018
SUB-TROPICAL STORM ALBERT
000 WTNT31 KNHC 252048 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 86.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast of the United States from Horseshoe Beach, Florida, westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast of the United States from Indian Pass, Florida, westward to Grand Isle, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with little change in strength forecast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
FORECAST TRACK
18Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
COMBO MODEL RUN
LATE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN
DAYS 1-5 (120hrs) Rainfall Outlook
ALBERTO IS A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES
Large circulation around Alberto is already drawing in moisture over
the southern half of the Peninsula. This will spread northward over the
weekend. If Alberto organizes further and pulls in the moisture closer
around the circulation then we could see a break during the weekend but
more that likely it will rain. RTW
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.180526T1200Z-180528T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-
Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
203 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.180526T1200Z-180528T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-
Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
203 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal
Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Glades,
Hendry, Inland Broward, Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade,
Inland Palm Beach, Mainland Monroe, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami- Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.
* From Saturday morning through Sunday evening
* Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected due to
deep tropical moisture streaming northward into South Florida.
Locally much higher amounts are possible. Rainfall of this
magnitude may lead to flooding.
* Grounds are fairly saturated from rainfall earlier in the week
so additional rainfall will more easily runoff and lead to
flooding. Flooding of canals, streets, and underpasses, as well
as other drainage areas and low-lying spots can be expected.
The hardest hit areas may see water intruding on vulnerable
structures and causing impassable travel lanes and roadways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal
Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Glades,
Hendry, Inland Broward, Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade,
Inland Palm Beach, Mainland Monroe, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami- Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.
* From Saturday morning through Sunday evening
* Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected due to
deep tropical moisture streaming northward into South Florida.
Locally much higher amounts are possible. Rainfall of this
magnitude may lead to flooding.
* Grounds are fairly saturated from rainfall earlier in the week
so additional rainfall will more easily runoff and lead to
flooding. Flooding of canals, streets, and underpasses, as well
as other drainage areas and low-lying spots can be expected.
The hardest hit areas may see water intruding on vulnerable
structures and causing impassable travel lanes and roadways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
SUB-TROPICAL ALBERTO FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SUB-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
000 WTNT31 KNHC 251443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be required for portions of this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
TRACK FORECAST
12Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
COMBO MODEL RUN
LATE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE
DAYS 1-5 RAINFALL OUTLOOK
Thursday, May 24, 2018
STORM INVEST 90L MAY 24, 2018...1103 PM EDT
FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EARLIER THE EURO MODEL WAS SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ralphstropicalweather.com
GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
LATE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WAVE WATCH MAY 24, 2018...0404 PM EDT
Other than one wave near 50° West the tropics remain quiet with below normal Atlantic sea surface temps at this time. We still have June, July, Aug and Sept for ocean temps to warm. If that don't occur, then this could hinder tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. Only time will tell, so be hurricane ready.
I continued to monitor INVEST 90L which should become a tropical cyclone at any time...RTW
I continued to monitor INVEST 90L which should become a tropical cyclone at any time...RTW
STORM INVEST 90L MAY 24, 2018...0254 PM EDT
STORM INVEST 90L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Stewart
18Z CURRENT MODEL RUN
LATE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE
DAYS 1-5 RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NOAA CALL FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 2018 HURRICANE SEASON
Well it is looking like a Poker Game with this Season. So far as I
mentioned to some of you that ask me earlier this month. This will be a
Neutral Season meaning we are between a weak El Nino and a weak La
Nina. What does this mean is anything can happen. We are either
suppressed from hurricanes or we are going to be busy. Near or Above
normal hurricane season means be prepared. Regardless of above or below
all it takes is just one storm and we always have to be prepared every
hurricane season...RTW
Philip KlotzbachVerified account @philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Philip KlotzbachVerified account @philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Seasonal Atlantic #hurricane outlook from NOAA calls for highest likelihood of a near-normal season: 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major (Cat. 3+) hurricanes. CSU will release its updated outlook on May 31. @iiiorg
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