Thursday, May 31, 2018

FLORIDIANS BUY YOUR HURRICANE SUPPLIES TAX FREE FROM JUNE 1-7

56m56 minutes ago
Floridians will be able to buy hurricane preparation supplies tax-free from Friday through next Thursday

COLORADO STATE UNNIVERSITY 2018 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST MAY 31, 2018

2h2 hours ago
CSU has updated its seasonal forecast and now calls for a near average season with 14 named storms (including Alberto), six and 2 major hurricanes. Primary reason for reduction is anomalous cooling in tropical Atlantic.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1023 AM EDT MAY 31 , 2018

1. Tropical wave west of the African coast near 21-22° West  is in a dry Sahara air layer (African dust) environment.  This inhibits thunderstorms from forming along the waves axis. Also the sea surface temps off the African coast are unusually cool for this time of the year.

2. Tropical wave near 56° West is not showing signs of development.  The tropics remain quiet for now.  RTW
 

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPIC OUTLOOK 0347 PM EDT MAY 30, 2018

 Tropical Waves
1. A new tropical wave near 17° West is in a dry Sahara Dust Environment.  Development is not likely at this time.

2 A tropical wave moved back from previous location to near 52° West.  There are no signs of development at this time.

Cool SST's
Abnormal cooling of the east Atlantic sea surface temps is being reported.  This and Sahara dust is a definite inhibitor for tropical cyclone formation.  Will have to monitor these cool SST's throughout the remainder of the season.  RTW
Note light tan color off the African coast that is Sahara Dust
 Sea Surface Temperature Map

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0958 AM EDT MAY 30, 2018

THERE IS A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50° WEST THAT IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL.  LETS HOPE THAT STAYS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. RTW


Tuesday, May 29, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0356 PM EDT MAY 29, 2018

One tropical wave near 46° West is still not showing signs of organization.  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.  RTW 

FLORIDA IS STUCK IN ANOTHER OF THOSE CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW

Florida is stuck in another of those Caribbean southerly moisture flow courtesy of Alberto's trough.  Visible satellite below shows the bright white clouds showers and storm being pulled north over the Peninsula.  The color satellite shows the stronger storms in darker shades over Cuba and the Florida straits.  Radar shows the rains tracking north toward the Florida Keys.  RTW




Local Radar

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1036 AM EDT MAY 29, 2018

There is one low latitude westward moving tropical wave near 42° west that is not showing any signs of development at this time.  Elsewhere the tropical remain quiet for now...RTW

Monday, May 28, 2018

ALBERTO DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION 1100 PM EDT MAY 28, 2018

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Aucilla River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Alberto was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 86.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h)  A
faster northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Alberto
will move over Alabama later tonight and early Tuesday.  The system
is forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast as Alberto moves
farther inland, and the system is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by Tuesday evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain from
Alabama to the western Great Lakes and from northern Florida to the
mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday.  Isolated maximum totals of 12
inches are possible over the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.  These
rains may produce flooding and flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 

 

HONORING THOSE WHO SERVED AND DIED FOR OUR FREEDOM MEMORIAL DAY MAY 28, 2018


ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA MAY 28, 2018

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282043
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All watches and warnings east of the Aucilla River have been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to Mexico Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 85.9 West.  The
storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A faster
northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move
over Alabama later tonight and Tuesday.  The system is forecast to
move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast as Alberto moves inland, and
Alberto is expected to become a subtropical depression tonight or
early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday
afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the
center.  The official observing site at Panama City recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(95 km/h).  An automated weather station near St. Andrew Bay
measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 2 inches,
isolated 5 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United
States, including Florida.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area into this evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Acuilla River to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola measured a
water level of 2.99 ft above Mean Higher High Water earlier this
afternoon.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of Georgia and southeast Alabama.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 



 

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0225 PM EDT... MAY 28, 2018

Tropical Update from Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW):

Other than Alberto approaching the Florida Panhandle there is a low latitude tropical wave at 35° West showing no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.  The tropics are quiet for now.
RTW


ALBERTO ADVISORY ISSUED AT 10 AM BY NHC MAY 28 2018

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Alabama/Florida border has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch west of Mexico Beach has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 85.8 West.  The
storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A faster
northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross
the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area this afternoon or this
evening.  After landfall, the system is forecast to move well inland
into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast later today.  Steady weakening is forecast
after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical
depression tonight or early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant
low by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.  An elevated observing station located about 15 miles (25
km) south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h).  A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h)
with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) have been observed at Apalachicola,
Florida within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 3 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
today and continue into this evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Mexico Beach...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from
northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South
Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 


 12Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
 LATE 06Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
 GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN
WIDEVIEW LEVEL 2 RADAR
 PRESENT LOCATION ZOOMED WIND FIELD AND NHC FORECAST TRACK