Friday, June 1, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK UPDATE JUNE 1, 2018

 National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES...  

1. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers, that are in the ITCZ precipitation, are from 02N to 08N between 20W and 30W...NHC 

2. A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 16N southward between 60W and 76W. Precipitation: rain showers are possible from 16N to 19N between 60W and 66W, and elsewhere from 19N southward to land between 60W and 70W...NHC

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

3. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation with wave 1 and 2...RTW

4. Off the coast of Africa there still is Sahara dry air and Dust. Doesn't seem to be 
affecting the monzoon thunderstorm activity along the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) along and south of the 10° West Latitude.

5. I will be monitoring the Northwest Caribbean again during the 2nd week
of June since the GFS model is once again insisting on development in this region...RTW 
 
ralphstropicalweather.com 
 African Infrared ch 13 Satellite
Atlantic Wide view
 

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2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES JUNE 1, 2018


Here is a list of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season names.


THE START OF 2018 HURRICANE SEASON HERE IS YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 1, 2018


Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 26W/27W from 
12N southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad 
trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the ITCZ 
precipitation, are from 03N to 07N between 20W and 30W.

A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 13N
southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI 
total precipitable water imagery. Upper level SW wind flow is
moving through the area of the tropical wave. rainshowers are
possible from 13N southward to land between 60W and 63W.
 
There are no signs of organization from either of these tropical waves.  RTW 


Thursday, May 31, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK

1.  A tropical wave near 22-23° West is lacking thunderstorm activity due to Sahara Air Layer or Dry Air and Dust.  There are no signs of organization at this time.  RTW

2.  A tropical wave approaching the Brazilian coast near 56-55° West has some thunderstorms associated with it but southwesterly shear ahead of the wave should prevent any further storm development before the wave makes its way onshore.  RTW



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COLORADO STATE UNNIVERSITY 2018 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST MAY 31, 2018

2h2 hours ago
CSU has updated its seasonal forecast and now calls for a near average season with 14 named storms (including Alberto), six and 2 major hurricanes. Primary reason for reduction is anomalous cooling in tropical Atlantic.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1023 AM EDT MAY 31 , 2018

1. Tropical wave west of the African coast near 21-22° West  is in a dry Sahara air layer (African dust) environment.  This inhibits thunderstorms from forming along the waves axis. Also the sea surface temps off the African coast are unusually cool for this time of the year.

2. Tropical wave near 56° West is not showing signs of development.  The tropics remain quiet for now.  RTW
 

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPIC OUTLOOK 0347 PM EDT MAY 30, 2018

 Tropical Waves
1. A new tropical wave near 17° West is in a dry Sahara Dust Environment.  Development is not likely at this time.

2 A tropical wave moved back from previous location to near 52° West.  There are no signs of development at this time.

Cool SST's
Abnormal cooling of the east Atlantic sea surface temps is being reported.  This and Sahara dust is a definite inhibitor for tropical cyclone formation.  Will have to monitor these cool SST's throughout the remainder of the season.  RTW
Note light tan color off the African coast that is Sahara Dust
 Sea Surface Temperature Map

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0958 AM EDT MAY 30, 2018

THERE IS A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50° WEST THAT IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL.  LETS HOPE THAT STAYS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. RTW


Tuesday, May 29, 2018

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0356 PM EDT MAY 29, 2018

One tropical wave near 46° West is still not showing signs of organization.  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.  RTW 

FLORIDA IS STUCK IN ANOTHER OF THOSE CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW

Florida is stuck in another of those Caribbean southerly moisture flow courtesy of Alberto's trough.  Visible satellite below shows the bright white clouds showers and storm being pulled north over the Peninsula.  The color satellite shows the stronger storms in darker shades over Cuba and the Florida straits.  Radar shows the rains tracking north toward the Florida Keys.  RTW




Local Radar

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1036 AM EDT MAY 29, 2018

There is one low latitude westward moving tropical wave near 42° west that is not showing any signs of development at this time.  Elsewhere the tropical remain quiet for now...RTW