000
WTNT31 KNHC 282043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018
...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All watches and warnings east of the Aucilla River have been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to Mexico Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to the Alabama/Florida border
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster
northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move
over Alabama later tonight and Tuesday. The system is forecast to
move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast as Alberto moves inland, and
Alberto is expected to become a subtropical depression tonight or
early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday
afternoon.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the
center. The official observing site at Panama City recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(95 km/h). An automated weather station near St. Andrew Bay
measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h) within the past couple of hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:
The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 2 inches,
isolated 5 inches.
Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.
Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United
States, including Florida.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area into this evening.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Acuilla River to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola measured a
water level of 2.99 ft above Mean Higher High Water earlier this
afternoon.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of Georgia and southeast Alabama.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
