TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 18, 2018... 1150 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 02N28W
to 12N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable
deep layer wind shear envioronment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB
and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry
air and dust, especially in the northern half of the wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N47W to 13N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Similar to the wave in the E
Atlc, this wave is being affected by the presence of dry air and
dust in its environment along with strong deep layer wind shear.
Therefore, no deep convection is associated with this wave at this
time.

A tropical wave is within 225 nm SE of the Windward Islands with
axis extending from 06N58W to 14N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave
is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level
diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 10N to 14N between 55W and 60W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W, 
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a 
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is 
associated with this wave.

------------------------------------------------------------ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system
interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
over Texas later today and tonight.  However, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
are likely to continue during the next few days.  For more
details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Roberts 

-------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR EAST TEXAS!

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 17, 2018...1153 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave axis extends from 02N24W to 12N23W. This system 
is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as
well as in model diagnostic guidance. Associated convection has 
greatly diminished during the past several hours with only 
scattered showers leftover.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending 
from 02N43W to 12N40W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A modest surge of 
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW 
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are 
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis
extending from the coast of Suriname near 04N56W to 14N53W, 
moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude 
bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently, 
scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 53W
and 56W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W, 
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a 
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is 
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the
Tropical NE Pacific extends northward through the Chivela Pass 
into the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W and is moving W around 15 kt.
TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep 
layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with an upper-level 
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring S of 20N E of the wave axis to 93W.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There is a flood potential for Texas in the coming days...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 17, 2018... 1043 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave axis extends from 04N21W to 13N20W. This system 
is moving W around 10 kt well defined in the TPW product and in
model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is
present within 120 nm of the wave axis between 04N and 09N.

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from 
03N41W to 13N39W, moving W around 10 kt. A modest surge of 
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW 
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending 
from 05N54W to 14N52W, moving W around 20 kt. The wave coincides 
with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW 
product. Currently, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 52W and 54W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean has an axis
extending from 12N70W to 19N68W, moving W around 15 kt. African 
dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow moisture and
virtually no convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving across the border of Guatemala and Mexico
has an axis extending from 12N92W to 19N92W and is moving W 
around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is 
embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered to numerous moderate 
and isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 20N
between 90W and 95W.

---------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 16, 2018... 0115 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is added to the 1200 UTC analysis/surface map
along 18W/19W based on the Hovmoller Diagram that shows the
westward propagation of the wave. This system is also well 
defined on the TPW product, and model diagnostics guidance. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the
southern end of the wave's axis from 5N-9N between 16W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic, with axis extending from 
13N33W to 04N34W, moving W at 10 kt. A modest surge of moistened
air is noted in association with the wave in TPW imagery. 
Scattered showers are where the wave meets the ITCZ axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis extending 
from 15N47W to 04N48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with
a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product.
Currently, shallow moisture and isolated showers are observed 
near the wave's axis. This wave will move across the waters E of
the Lesser Antilles Sun night through Mon night, and the eastern 
Caribbean Tue through Wed night.

A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis extends along 66W/67W. African dust surrounds the wave. 
As a result, shallow moisture with embedded showers is associated 
with the wave. This wave will move across the remainder of the 
eastern Caribbean through Sun, the central Caribbean Sun night 
through Tue and the western Caribbean Tue night through Wed night.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America, with axis along
87W/88W from 11N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave's 
axis affecting parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The 
GFS model indicates plenty of moisture over Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 15 2018... 0339 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic, with axis extending from 
13N29W to 03N30W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well as a
low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. The GOES-16 
Geocolor RGB imagery shows the presence of the Saharan dust and 
dry air N of the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis extending 
from 14N46W to 03N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well
depicted in the TPW product. Shallow moisture and isolated 
showers are near the wave's axis. 

A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis extends 61W/62W. African dust also surrounds the wave. 
As a result, shallow moisture with embedded showers is associated
with the wave. Moisture related to this system will reach Puerto 
Rico late today into tonight, and Hispaniola early on Sun,
increasing the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean, with axis along 82W
from 10N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms 
are seen over the SW Caribbean, likely a combination of the wave 
and the proximity of the Monsoon Through. The wave will move 
westward into Central America through Sat, helping to induce some
shower and tstm activity. The GFS model indicates plenty of
moisture over Central America this upcoming weekend. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com

Days 1-5 Rainfall Outlook 

NEW STORM INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN JUNE 15, 2018...0141 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a surface trough.  While significant development of this system
is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring
across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday.  For more details on this
system please see products issued by your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

---------------------------------------------------------------

Looks rather interesting on visible and water vapor satellite with a bit 

of circulation and some outflow.  None of the models are suggesting 

development in this region, but I will continue to monitor it closely...RTW 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 15, 2018... 1018 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 
13N28W to 03N29W, moving W at 10 kt. The TPW shows moderate 
moisture associated with the wave. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB 
imagery shows the presence of the Saharan dust and dry air N of 
the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the 
wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 13N45W to 03N46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The Saharan Air 
Layer from CIMSS shows the wave has dry air and dust N of 13N. 
Isolated moderate convection is behind the wave's axis and N of 
the ITCZ from 7N-10N between 37W-45W. 

A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands with axis 
extending from 15N60W to 07N61W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan
Air Layer dust and dry air is N of 10N. Shallow moisture with
embedded showers is associated with the wave, and will affect the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean today. 

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 82W from
10N-19N. Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean,
likely a combination of the wave and the proximity of the Monsoon 
Through. The wave will move westward into Central America through 
Sat. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 14, 2018... 0328 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141730
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough, accompanied by an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico and
the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today
through Saturday.  Development, if any, of this disturbance should
be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

Some of the models are suggesting heavy rains for Texas and a portion of Louisiana...RTW

Day 1-5 Rainfall Forecast 

GFS Precipitable Water Model

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 14, 2018... 1204 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to
move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday.  Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com 

Mostly rain for Texas if at all!  Not worthy of being on the map

but I always monitor regardless.

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 0302 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This area of
disturbed weather, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is forecast
to move west-northwestward over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
later tonight, and move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday afternoon.  No development is expected for the next day or
so due to land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and strong
upper-level winds.  However, environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development of this disturbance
while it moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 1030 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Bud, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the
next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward.  By
the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further
organization.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rain
causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in
a day or so and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

ralphstropicalweather.com 

Upper level outflow from East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Bud is streaming over the Northwest

Caribbean and suppressing any development from Invest 91L north of Honduras... RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1155 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This activity
is forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, with no
development expected. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1014 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to
northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of days, and little development is expected during
that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds.  Environmental
conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development
when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the week.  Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

--------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com