TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 29, 2018... 1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from 02N-16N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. 
Convection is limited near the wave's axis. S

A tropical wave extends from 19N41W to 03N44W, moving westward 10
to 15 knots. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the
wave's axis. This wave will move into the tropical North Atlantic 
waters on Sat, and reach the eastern Caribbean early Sun. 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and 
extends from the Virgin Islands to central Venezuela. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 12N-16N between 64W-68W. This 
will move across the Caribbean basin through Sat night.

Another tropical wave extends across the NW Caribbean and Central
America into the EPAC region. Its axis is along 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough in
the EPAC.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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The Atlantic continues to be unseasonably colder than normal and

if this persist they may need to adjust the forecast to below normal.

RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 28, 2018... 1126 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N 
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W.
isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near
Panama. 

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

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The tropics remain quiet for now!

ralphstropicalweather.com

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 0321 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 01N to 20N along 27W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N-10N 
between 25W-32W. While no surface observations were in the 
vicinity of the wave, visible satellite imagery suggests that 
either a distinct surface trough or broad low is present. A
distinct maximum in total precipitable water (TPW) exists along
and east of the wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to 
southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward
across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 01N to 19N, and 
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant 
convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has
negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the 
700 mb model diagnostics and TPW.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and 
South America along 78W from 02N to 19N, and is moving west about
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists
south of 13N within 300 nm west of the wave's axis. The wave has 
negligible surface signature and cannot be easily identified in 
TPW, though it is present in the 700 mb model diagnostics

A tropical wave is progressing west through Central America and 
is currently analyzed with axis along 90W and extends south from 
22N into the east Pacific near 09N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring east of the wave axis over
portions of Central America. The wave does have some surface
circulation as well as being apparent in the TPW imagery. This 
tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific 
tropical cyclone later this week.

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A Strong surge of moisture Meso type thunderstorm, more than likely

associated with a new tropical wave, is emerging off the coast of

Africa. This system is pushing more African Dust westward over the

Atlantic... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 1101 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located offshore of the
the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a
small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while
this system moves northeastward away from the United States during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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There is another strong wave about to emerge off the African coast that is

kicking up Sahara Dust westward over the Atlantic waters.

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time..RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 26, 2018... 0402 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261721
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near the
coast of North Carolina.  Environmental conditions could support
this system gradually acquiring some tropical characteristics over
the next few days while the system moves slowly eastward or
northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Monitoring the coast of the Carolina for tropical cyclone formation...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 26, 2018...1042 AM

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a
stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday.
Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system
acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as
the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake

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There are some models that are suggesting tropical cyclone formation

as low pressure moves off the east coast of the U.S... There are no

signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2018... 0413 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with strong signature has been added to the 
surface analysis over western Africa from 02N to 20N along 11W.
A squall line precedes the wave by about 90 nm, and a cluster of
strong convection has moved off the African coast to within 
75 nm of 09N16W. The longitude of wave axis will likely be adjusted
as it passes sites of radiosonde launches over the next few 
days. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 31.5W from 02N to 18N, and is 
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Isolated moderate 
convection is observed from 04N to 14N within 210 nm either side 
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean from 09N to 
20N along 63W and is moving west about 18 kt, but should soon 
begin to slow it's forward progression as it continues southwest 
of the a surface high near 30N52W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are observed within 210 nm of the wave. 

A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and 
is currently analyzed along 74W and extends north across the 
Mona Passage and south across northern Colombia. Isolated 
showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest 
Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with a few showers and tstms 
also noted along the wave at 17N. 

Another tropical wave is along 87.5W and will pass across the 
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of central America late today. 
Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave. This wave 
will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low 
pressure over the East Pacific along 95W where conditions are 
expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation late 
this week.  Numerous strong convection is currently observed 
across the far southwest Caribbean between two tropical waves. 

--------------------------------------------------------------

I added NEW Live National Weather Service Radar webpage to 

Ralph's Tropical Weather site.  Button at top will take you

there.  I am still adding more Radar so check back daily... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2018...1035 AM EDT

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico... RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 24, 2018... 1019 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
19W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 07N to 10N between 19W and 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 03N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 
63W from eastern Venezuela northward to the Leeward Islands, 
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends from eastern Cuba to eastern
Panama. This wave, is interacting with an upper level trough 
extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, and will
enhance convection over Cuba today. 

Another tropical wave is near 89W, and extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala into the eastern north Pacific region. 
This wave in conjunction with an upper level low spinning over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support convection
over SE Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico.  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 23, 2018... 1122 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
16W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 06N-10N between 14W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N40W to 03N41W.  
Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 04N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N 
between 54W and 59W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from the coast of 
western Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots.
This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping 
for active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the 
wave axis. This convective activity is affecting Puerto Rico and
parts of Hispaniola.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W extending from the eastern
north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The wave is 
helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west of 78W,
and the western half of Cuba. Clusters of moderate to strong
convection are seen where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 22, 2018 0400 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off the west coast of Africa and will
likely be added to the 1800 UTC surface map. The Hovmoller Diagram
indicates the westward propagation of the wave. A large cluster 
of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 6N-10N 
between 11W-15W in association with this system.

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 16N32W to 04N34W. African
dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A patch of low level
moisture is near the northern end of the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is along 50W from 6N-18N, moving W at 20 kt. A 
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the
southern end of the wave's axis from 06N-08N between 50W and 52W.
This wave will pass west of 55W early on Sat, and move across the
Windward Islands by Sat night. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N65W to the coast of
Venezuela near 10N66W, moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is
generating scattered moderate convection across the basin, mainly
E of 67W, including the Lesser Antilles, where showers and 
locally heavy rain have been reported. Upper diffluent ahead of an
upper-level trough that now crosses Hispaniola is helping to 
induce this convective activity. Moisture related to this wave 
will spread out over Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands 
today, reaching Dominican Republic tonight into Sat, increasing 
the likelihood of showers with embedded tstms. A recent scatterometer
pass clearly indicates the wind shift associated with the wave's 
axis.

A tropical wave extends from the westernmost tip of Jamaica to
eastern Panama near 09N79W. Lingering moisture from this tropical 
wave will continue to support scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters today. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are observed between Haiti and 
Jamaica while some shower activity is near the wave's axis from
15N-18N. Abundant tropical moisture will persist over the NW 
Caribbean and central America through at least early Sat.

---------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 21, 2018... 0316 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

As of 1200 UTC, there are four tropical waves between the west 
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-12N, moving W at 20 kt. The
Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave, 
that coincides with a modest surge of moistened air based on the 
TPW product. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but 
convection is limited.

A tropical wave is along 34W from 3N-11N, moving W at 20 kt. This
wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW 
animation. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the 
ITCZ.

A tropical wave is along 43W from 3N-11N, moving W at about 15 
knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product, and
model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted on either side of the wave's axis from 6N-8N between 40W- 
46W.

Another tropical wave is along 60W from 6N-17N, moving W at about
10 knots. The wave coincides with a high amplitude northward bulge
of moisture, and is also well depicted in model diagnostics 
guidance. Scattered moderate convection is already affecting 
Trinidad and Tobago as well as Barbados, where showers and some 
tstms have been reported. Moisture associated with this feature 
will continue to affect the Windward Islands today. The wave will 
then move across the eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Fri 
night. The associated moisture is forecast by the GFS computer 
model to spread out reaching the Leeward Islands later today and 
tonight, and Puerto Rico on Fri, then Dominican Republic Fri night
into Sat.

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is 
along 73W, and extends from Hispaniola to northern Colombia. 
The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough that crosses 
eastern Cuba. Lingering moisture from this tropical wave will 
continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
across Hispaniola today. Moisture and instability related to this 
wave will also affect the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba, 
as well as Jamaica today. Currently, scattered showers and tstms 
are noted in the Windward Passage, across the waters between 
eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and E of Jamaica. This wave is forecast 
to move across Jamaica tonight, entering the western Caribbean 
Fri.

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The tropics remains quiet for now... RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 20, 2018... 1157 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

There are three tropical waves between the west coast of Africa 
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 26W from 3N-11N, moving W 15-20 knots. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the
ITCZ.

A second tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 3N-11N, moving W 
about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is also noted where
the wave meets the ITCZ.

A third tropical wave is along 55W from 5N-14N, moving W about 10
knots. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm on
the west side of the wave's axis from 10N-12N

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 67W/68W, and extends from the Mona Passage to the coast
of Venezuela. A cluster of moderate convection is over the Mona
Passage. 

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The tropics remain quiet for now! 

ralphstropicalweather.com