Thursday, July 12, 2018

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 12, 2018...0417 PM EDT

BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L
569 
ABNT20 KNHC 121721
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris, located a little over 200 miles
west-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the
remnants of Beryl is located about 400 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda.  Little or no development is expected through Friday while
the system moves northeastward.  However, environmental conditions
could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the
disturbance will be moving northward or north-northeastward over the
warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong
upper-level trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

POST TROPICAL CHRIS LAST ADVISORY AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JUL 12, 2018 1137 PM EDT

POST TROPICAL CHRIS
(LAST ADVISORY)
922 
WTNT33 KNHC 121509 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number  24...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

Corrected Discussion and Outlook Section

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Chris was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near
36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Friday. On the forecast track, Chris is expected to pass over or
near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland late
afternoon and early evening today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Canadian buoy just east of the center recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h) and gust to 71 mph
(115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Even though Chris is moving away from the United States,
swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from
North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of
days.  Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding.  Sable Island has received
more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past
few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other
information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products
issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the
internet at  weather.gc.ca/hurricane/.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 ralphstropicalweather.com

 

BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L) 
123 
ABNT20 KNHC 121128
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Chris, located about 400 miles southwest
of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
the remnants of Beryl is located about midway between the Bahamas
and Bermuda.  Little or no development is expected through Friday
while the system moves northeastward.  However, environmental
conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend
when the disturbance will be moving northward over the warm waters
of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





  


Wednesday, July 11, 2018

CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JULY 11, 2018...0500 PM EDT

CHRIS
734 
WTNT33 KNHC 112046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Hurricane Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located
near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Chris is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to remain on this general heading with an increase in
forward speed for the next several days.  On the forecast track the
center of Chris will pass over or near southeastern Newfoundland
Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected this
evening. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and
Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone by
Thursday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
 BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L)

065 
ABNT20 KNHC 111737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Chris, located more than 400 miles east-northeast of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas
and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few
hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but
conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week
and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information
on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 





 


H. CHRIS AND REMNANT OF BERYL (INVEST 95L) JULY 11, 2018...1100 AM EDT

CHRIS
544 
WTNT33 KNHC 111458
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Hurricane Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located
near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 67.8 West.  Chris is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  The hurricane is
forecast to remain on this general heading with an increase in
forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the
center of Chris will pass near southeastern Newfoundland on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected during the day today,
with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris will likely
also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/





 
 BERYL (INVEST 95L)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Chris, located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and
extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions
could become a little more favorable later in the week while the
disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The
previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Local Radar

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

H. CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANT (INVEST 95L) JULY 10, 2018...0521 PM EDT

CHRIS
900 
WTNT33 KNHC 102053
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located
near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 72.4 West. Chris is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A continued
northeastward motion accompanied by a steady increase in forward
speed is expected through Thursday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast
tonight and Wednesday. Chris is forecast to begin weakening by
Thursday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday
night or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states during the next few days.  These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 





BERYL REMNANTS (STORM INVEST 95L)
224 
ABNT20 KNHC 101743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the
North Carolina Outer Banks.

The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent
Atlantic waters.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward
across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern
Bahamas this evening.  Little development is expected during the
next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level
winds.  However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could
become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical
cyclone later this week.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday
afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and
the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart