569 ABNT20 KNHC 121721 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris, located a little over 200 miles west-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located about 400 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward or north-northeastward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Thursday, July 12, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 12, 2018...0417 PM EDT
BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L
POST TROPICAL CHRIS LAST ADVISORY AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JUL 12, 2018 1137 PM EDT
POST TROPICAL CHRIS
(LAST ADVISORY)
ralphstropicalweather.com
(LAST ADVISORY)
922 WTNT33 KNHC 121509 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number 24...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Corrected Discussion and Outlook Section ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 57.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland late afternoon and early evening today. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Canadian buoy just east of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h) and gust to 71 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States, swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. Sable Island has received more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ralphstropicalweather.com
BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L)
123 ABNT20 KNHC 121128 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Chris, located about 400 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JULY 11, 2018...0500 PM EDT
CHRIS
734 WTNT33 KNHC 112046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 65.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane is expected to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass over or near southeastern Newfoundland Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L)
065 ABNT20 KNHC 111737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris, located more than 400 miles east-northeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks. The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
H. CHRIS AND REMNANT OF BERYL (INVEST 95L) JULY 11, 2018...1100 AM EDT
CHRIS
544 WTNT33 KNHC 111458 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 67.8 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass near southeastern Newfoundland on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the day today, with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/BERYL (INVEST 95L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris, located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week while the disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
H. CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANT (INVEST 95L) JULY 10, 2018...0521 PM EDT
CHRIS
900 WTNT33 KNHC 102053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 72.4 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued northeastward motion accompanied by a steady increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. Chris is forecast to begin weakening by Thursday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
BERYL REMNANTS (STORM INVEST 95L)
224 ABNT20 KNHC 101743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks. The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent Atlantic waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern Bahamas this evening. Little development is expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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