Sunday, July 15, 2018
REASON FOR NO UPDATES!
This has been a busy weekend helping my daughter move. This is why I have not been updating the blog or website. I will resume regular updates tomorrow July 16, 2018 through Wed July 18 then I will be on vacation July 19-24. In the meantime you can use links for satellite, and the hurricane center on ralphstropicalweather.com or on the web...RTW
Friday, July 13, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 13, 2018... 0401 PM EDT
751 ABNT20 KNHC 131743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl, is located about 250 miles west-northwest of Bermuda. Although upper-level winds are at best marginally conducive, this system has become a little better organized today, and some additional subtropical or tropical development is possible tonight and Saturday while the low moves north-northeastward at about 10 mph. By Sunday, the system should reach colder water north of the Gulf Stream, where additional development is unlikely. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
BERYL STORM INVEST 95L JULY 13, 2018... 1142 AM EDT
914
ABNT20 KNHC
31155
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl, is
located about 300 miles west of Bermuda. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized due to strong upper-level
winds. These winds are expected to become even less conducive for
subtropical or tropical development over the next day or two while
the low moves north-northeastward at about 10 mph, and additional
development will be limited once the low reaches colder waters by
Saturday night or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Thursday, July 12, 2018
TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 12, 2018...0417 PM EDT
569 ABNT20 KNHC 121721 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris, located a little over 200 miles west-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located about 400 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward or north-northeastward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
POST TROPICAL CHRIS LAST ADVISORY AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JUL 12, 2018 1137 PM EDT
(LAST ADVISORY)
922 WTNT33 KNHC 121509 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number 24...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Corrected Discussion and Outlook Section ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 57.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland late afternoon and early evening today. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Canadian buoy just east of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h) and gust to 71 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States, swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. Sable Island has received more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L)
123 ABNT20 KNHC 121128 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Chris, located about 400 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANTS JULY 11, 2018...0500 PM EDT
734 WTNT33 KNHC 112046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 65.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane is expected to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass over or near southeastern Newfoundland Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/BERYL'S REMNANTS (INVEST 95L)
065 ABNT20 KNHC 111737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris, located more than 400 miles east-northeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks. The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
H. CHRIS AND REMNANT OF BERYL (INVEST 95L) JULY 11, 2018...1100 AM EDT
544 WTNT33 KNHC 111458 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 67.8 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass near southeastern Newfoundland on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the day today, with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris, located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week while the disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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