Thursday, August 2, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 0332 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
778 
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 17N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 19N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/66W from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers 
are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. 

A tropical wave is inland in Central America, from the Yucatan
Peninsula to Belize, passing through Guatemala and Honduras, 
beyond El Salvador, along 88W/89W from 20N southward, moving W 10 
to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either 
side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N24W just to the south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 14N24W to 09N35W, and
07N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
from 10N to 13N between 15W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 07N27W to 09N39W to 10N48W to 08N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated
with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east 
Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from
south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of
Mexico near 24N. Precipitation:

isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits
of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE 
Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that 
extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 
22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the 
Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will nove slowly W, and 
inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and 
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface 
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to 
locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to around midnight. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong 
rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the
coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are 
with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the 
central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday 
night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move 
across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central 
Caribbean Sea on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
33N66W.

The winds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of 
Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere 
across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a 
ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts northward.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
No change in the tropics for now.
RTW
 

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RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 1004 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
204 
AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers near the monsoon trough are from 06N 
to 10N between 30W and 37W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. 

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The middle part of the
tropical wave is moving through Honduras and El Salvador. The
northern part is set to move into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 15N23W just to the southeast of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N27W and 08N41W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N41W to 06N48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 
37W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 44W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers from 06N to 10N between 50W and 59W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

A surface trough will meander over the central Gulf
through Fri. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
likely in the vicinity of the trough. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Scattered showers 
from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
33N66W.

Trade winds across the region will diminish through
Saturday, as the current 32N/33N ridge, between 20W and 70W 
across the Atlantic Ocean, weakens and lifts northward.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
----------------------------------------------------------------
Sahara dust on the move westward large area of dust see tropic map
on Ralph's Tropical Weather website.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 0326 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
684 
AXNT20 KNHC 011747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 23W and 26W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to
11N between 21W and 29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 40W and 50W,
near the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between 60W and
63W. 

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 21N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from Honduras northward from 83W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N23W in the Cabo Verde Islands.
The ITCZ is along 09N21W 09N41W 08N44W 07N53W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the line from 11N21W to 08N29W to 10N37W to
08N47W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of 10N52W 11N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean
Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras each night. Scattered rainshowers with thunder in the
tropical N Atlantic Ocean, ahead of a tropical wave, will reach 
the SE Caribbean Sea tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N66W cyclonic circulation
center, to a SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center that is near
20N77W. The trough continues from SE Cuba into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Rainshowers are possible in
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N24W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
35N38W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N63W,
to central Florida near 28N81W.

The current strong ridge, that extends from the Azores to central
Florida, will weaken and lift northward from Thursday through 
Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola at night.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
RTW

SOUTH FLORIDA SEVEN DAY FORECAST AUG 1, 2018... 1230 PM EDT


Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 103°F. Southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Thursday Aug 2

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 89°F. Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.



Friday Aug 3

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Saturday Aug 4

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Sunday Aug 5

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Monday Aug 6

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 89°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 11 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Tuesday Aug 7
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
LIVE NWS MIAMI RADAR
Local Radar

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 1058 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
080 
AXNT20 KNHC 011205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N
along 26W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be severely
affected by the Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by
GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. This is hindering convection in
the wave environment N of 11N. In the southern wave environment,
the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection from
07N-11N between 20W-27W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
07N-18N along 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is also being 
severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as 
depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW 
imagery. No convection is associated to this wave N of 11N. In the
southern wave environment, the monsoon trough and ITCZ support
scattered moderate convection from 07N-10N between 38W-45W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 06N-
17N along 57W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported 
by a mid-level inverted trough. A thin layer of dry air from a
former SAL outbreak affects the northern wave environment.
Abundant moderate moisture associated with the ITCZ and diffluece
aloft support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
from 08N-12N between 50W-63W.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending S of
21N along 81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a shallow
moist environment that support scattered showers and tstms W of
80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W 
and continues to 18N20W, then resumes near 09N27W to 08N34W to
08N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N43W and continues to 08N56W. 
For information about convection, see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlc subtropical high extends across the E basin supporting 
light to gentle southeasterly flow, except in the NE basin where
convection enhance winds to moderate to fresh. CIRA LPW imagery 
show very moist air at low levels across the basin, which is being
advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist 
environment along with diffluence aloft supports scattered showers
and tstms N of 23N E of 92W. A surface trough extends from 31N84W
to 24N95W and is related to this convection. To the southwest, a 
thermal through currently extending over the Yucatan Peninsula is 
enhancing convection across the eastern portion of the Bay of 
Campeche. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned 
regions through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as
noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle-to-upper
level diffluence is supporting scattered showers N of 18N and 
west of 80W. An upper-level low off the E coast of Jamaica 
support scattered showers over eastern Cuba and the Windward 
Passage related also to a tropical wave. See the section above for
details. Elsewhere, GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry 
air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the 
development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move
across the Lesser Antilles by Thu with showers for the Windward 
Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves move across the basin, see the section above
for details. Elsewhere, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the 
basin, supporting fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will 
dominate the basin through the next couple of days providing 
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/NAR 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
Sahara dust and dry air continues to govern the Central Atlantic.
RTW

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 0334 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
231 
AXNT20 KNHC 311653
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N
along 22W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer 
wind shear environment, however is being severely affected by a
Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA
LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between
20W-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
07N-18N along 35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low 
deep layer wind shear environment, however is being severely 
affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by 
GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery. No 
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-
17N along 51W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is being supported
by a middle to upper level inverted trough and is mainly in a dry
air environment as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery.
Moderate moisture in the southern wave environment associated with
the ITCZ support scattered moderate convection from 07N-12N
between 50W-53W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S
of 20N along 76W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is mainly in a
strong deep layer wind shear environment and Saharan dust is noted
across the central Caribbean in GOES-16 RGBs imagery. However,
CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with
this wave, which along diffluence aloft support scattered moderate
convection between Colombia and S Panama S of 12N. An upper-level
low centered E of Jamaica support isolated showers across
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. 

A tropical wave is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay
of Campeche. Its axis is S of 22N along 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is being supported by a middle-level inverted trough that
along with shallow moisture support scattered showers in the SW
Gulf S of 23N E of 92W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W 
to 09N21W to 09N28W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N38W and
continues to 09N49W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 
10N52W and continues to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers and isolated tstms are from 08N-11N E of 17W and from 
06N- 13N between 50W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlc subtropical high continues to extend a ridge axis SW
across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf, thus supporting
light to gentle south-southeasterly flow. CIRA LPW imagery show
very moist air at the lower levels across the basin, which is 
being advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist 
environment along with diffluence aloft support scattered showers
and tstms N of 23N E of 90W. In the E Bay of Campeche, a tropical
wave support scattered showers. See tropical waves section for
further details. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are
within 90 nm off the SE coast of Texas and SW coast of Louisiana
associated with a frontal system N of the area and anchored by a
1013 mb low in NE Texas. This front is forecast to come off the 
coast of Texas Wed morning, stall from SW Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Thu morning and weakening to a surface trough late
Thu night. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned
regions through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as
noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle to
upper level diffluence is supporting scattered showers and tstms N
of 18N between 79W-86W. Similar convection is in the SW basin S of
12N between 74W-84W, which is associated with the EPAC monsoon
trough that connects to a 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia
near 10N76W. An upper level low off the E coast of Jamaica support
isolated showers over western Dominican Republic, Haiti and the
Windward Passage. GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry air
and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the
development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to 
move across the Lesser Antilles Thu with showers for the Windward 
Islands. Another tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean on 
Sunday with showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves move across the basin...see section above.
Otherwise, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the basin, thus
supporting mainly fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will 
dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple 
of days providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A Hugh plume of African Sahara dust has moved off the African coast
due to mid to upper level low that has moved off shore kicking up
the dust. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. 
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 1052 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
047 
AXNT20 KNHC 311206
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 21W from 05N-
17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is 
evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total 
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is in 
the southern wave environment from 05N-09N between 14W-27W 
associated with the monsoon trough

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 32W from 
07N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in 
the GFS analysis is noted with this wave. No convection is 
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W from 
02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and 
dust inhibit deep convection from developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is inland 
over Venezuela and Hispaniola.

A tropical wave is along 95W, moving westward at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection exists in the Bay of 
Campeche...heavy showers and tstms are E of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W 
to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast 
of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it 
intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection 
is present from 05N-09N east of 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the 
eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across 
the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely 
scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds 
will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial 
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward 
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf 
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with 
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon 
trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient 
over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds 
around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the 
monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between 
75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above. 
The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is 
observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging 
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next 
couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for 
scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
DM/NR 
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time! 

Monday, July 30, 2018

RTW SITE SERVER MAINTENANCE

Seems like SiteBuilder folks are still working on their servers because I now am unable to load the Site Builder tool so I can update RTW site.  This is once again messing with some of the graphics on the page like the tropical wave symbols and those automated pages below that use html script to auto update.  I may not be able to do the afternoon tropical weather outlook on the website, so I will improvise and do a short update here...RTW
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National Hurricane center
360 
AXNT20 KNHC 301727
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W 
from 08N-24N, moving westward around 10 kt. A pronounced 700 mb 
trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a 
surface trough as see from the 1142 UTC ASCAT scatterometer 
pass.  The total precipitable water imagery also shows a maximum 
east of the trough axis. No significant deep convection is 
present with this wave at present. This wave does not pose a 
threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending 
from 02N-20N along 41W, moving westward around 15 kt. This was 
only weakly is depicted in the 700 mb tropical trough diagnostic 
and has negligible surface circulation.  North of 13N, the wave 
is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer.  No significant deep 
convection is present with this wave at present. This wave does 
not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the 
next five days.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
01N-22N near 64W, moving westward about 20 kt. The wave is well-
defined as seen in 700 mb turning of the winds at the San Juan 
and Guadeloupe rawindsondes from 12Z this morning.  There is 
also some slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at the 
1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer.  Scattered moderate convection is 
inland over Venezuela from 07N-10N between 60W-64W. This wave 
does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during 
the next five days.

A tropical wave is over Central America extending from 00N-20N 
near 88W, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave was 
repositioned farther west, based upon the Cancun and Merida 
rawindsondes winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical trough 
diagnostics.  Scattered moderate convection exists from 19N-23N 
between 84W-90W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical 
cyclone development over the Atlantic basin during the next five 
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W 
to 09N21W where it breaks east of a tropical wave.  The ITCZ 
extends from 10N27W to 08N40W. W of a tropical wave, the ITCZ 
resumes near 08N43W and continues to the coast of South America 
near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 05N 
east of 22W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge into the eastern Gulf from the western 
Atlantic.  With a very flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5-
10 kt across the entire Gulf.  An upper level low is centered 
near 27N88W, which is helping to promote isolated moderate 
convection in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico.  Winds 
will remain light during the next couple of days.  Substantial 
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward 
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf 
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with 
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica association with the NE 
Pacific monsoon trough are contribution toward a moderate 
pressure gradient over the Caribbean.  This results in easterly 
tradewinds for 10-20 kt with a local peak of 25 kt just 
northwest of Colombia as seen in a 1428 UTC ASCAT scatterometer 
pass.  Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean; 
please refer to the section above for details.  Scattered 
moderate convection exists from 19N-23N between 84W-90W.  In the 
southwest Caribbean, the NE Pacific's monsoon trough supports 
numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 07N-12N 
between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica. 
Little change is expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; please refer to 
the section above for details. A 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores high 
dominates the remainder of the basin, centered near 35N54W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the W Atlantic N 
of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and 
eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing 
stable and dry conditions, except for scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave currently near 26W.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
 
 
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Ralph's Tropical Weather
So far there are no changes in the tropics there are four waves across 
the Atlantic.  So far the first two are being affected by Sahara dust
and dry air and the other two are not showing signs of tropical cyclone
formation at this time.  There is a lot of tropical moisture flowing over
Florida as the Peninsula is sandwiched in between two upper level
lows one in the Gulf and the other near Eastern Cuba.  There are no
signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW