Parte importante de su preparación para huracanes es que conozca su zona. La marejada de tormenta ocurre cuando el agua del océano es empujada hacia la orilla por la fuerza de tormentas tropicales o huracanes. Averigüe en qué zona reside: http://bit.ly/2OeewSW #HurricaneStrong
Friday, August 3, 2018
PARTE IMPORTANTE DE SU PREPARACION PARA HURACANES...
Miami-Dade County EMVerified account @MiamiDadeEM
1 hour ago
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2018... 1051 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
472 AXNT20 KNHC 031204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N southward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between Africa and 20W. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are about 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, from 10N to 12N between 20W and 28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N to 14N between 36W and 50W. some of the precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N to 13N between 50W and 60W. some of the precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the area of a pre-existing area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough and a cyclonic circulation center. A tropical wave is along 93W/94W from 20N southward, from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean. rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N30W, and 13N39W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 09N49W, and 10N56W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in general, are from 09N to 12N between Africa and 28W. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information about precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of Mexico near 24N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N between 90W and 95W. The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. A surface trough extending from southern Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche will shift W and inland through tonight. The northern extent of a tropical wave will move through the Straits of Florida tonight and across the southern Gulf this weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the tropical wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W during the overnight hours, where the sea heights occasionally will build to 10 to 12 feet. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rain showers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N66W. The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Tuesday night. The trade trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually through early next week, as a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will dissipate into a trough through the end of the weekend. It is possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. A surface Ridge will develop by the middle of the week as the trough dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet due to cool sea
surface temps and Sahara Dust and Dry air...RTW
Thursday, August 2, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 0332 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
778 AXNT20 KNHC 021803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 19N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 45W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/66W from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. A tropical wave is inland in Central America, from the Yucatan Peninsula to Belize, passing through Guatemala and Honduras, beyond El Salvador, along 88W/89W from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N24W just to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 14N24W to 09N35W, and 07N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers from 10N to 13N between 15W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the line that runs from 07N27W to 09N39W to 10N48W to 08N60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of Mexico near 24N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N between 90W and 95W. The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will nove slowly W, and inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central Caribbean Sea on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N66W. The winds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts northward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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No change in the tropics for now.
RTW
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!
I want to thank those who donated to help keep this site online. With recent donations we are now good until December 2018. I still need more donations if we want to keep this Ralph's Tropical Weather on line during the off season and during 2019 Hurricane Season.
So please continued your support so I can continue to serve you all next season God willing. My yearly server provider fee is $137.76 and this includes the domain name. Your support is greatly appreciated!
Thank you
RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 1004 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
204 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers near the monsoon trough are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 45W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The middle part of the tropical wave is moving through Honduras and El Salvador. The northern part is set to move into the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 15N23W just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N27W and 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to 06N48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 37W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 06N to 10N between 50W and 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas, parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N between 90W and 95W. The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. A surface trough will meander over the central Gulf through Fri. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely in the vicinity of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to 10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Scattered showers from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N66W. Trade winds across the region will diminish through Saturday, as the current 32N/33N ridge, between 20W and 70W across the Atlantic Ocean, weakens and lifts northward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Sahara dust on the move westward large area of dust see tropic map
on Ralph's Tropical Weather website.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 0326 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
684 AXNT20 KNHC 011747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 23W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 21W and 29W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 40W and 50W, near the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between 60W and 63W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Honduras northward from 83W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N23W in the Cabo Verde Islands. The ITCZ is along 09N21W 09N41W 08N44W 07N53W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line from 11N21W to 08N29W to 10N37W to 08N47W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of 10N52W 11N59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas, parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N between 90W and 95W. The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to 10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night. Scattered rainshowers with thunder in the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, ahead of a tropical wave, will reach the SE Caribbean Sea tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 29N66W cyclonic circulation center, to a SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center that is near 20N77W. The trough continues from SE Cuba into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 37N24W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 35N38W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N63W, to central Florida near 28N81W. The current strong ridge, that extends from the Azores to central Florida, will weaken and lift northward from Thursday through Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern coast of Hispaniola at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
RTW
SOUTH FLORIDA SEVEN DAY FORECAST AUG 1, 2018... 1230 PM EDT
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 90°F. Heat index around 103°F. Southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 80°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday Aug 2
Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 89°F.
Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation
20 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Lows
around 80°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 20 percent.
Friday Aug 3
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 87°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Saturday Aug 4
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Sunday Aug 5
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
Monday Aug 6
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 89°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 11 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Tuesday Aug 7
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms.
Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
LIVE NWS MIAMI RADAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 1058 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
080 AXNT20 KNHC 011205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N along 26W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be severely affected by the Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. This is hindering convection in the wave environment N of 11N. In the southern wave environment, the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection from 07N-11N between 20W-27W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N along 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is also being severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery. No convection is associated to this wave N of 11N. In the southern wave environment, the monsoon trough and ITCZ support scattered moderate convection from 07N-10N between 38W-45W. A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 06N- 17N along 57W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported by a mid-level inverted trough. A thin layer of dry air from a former SAL outbreak affects the northern wave environment. Abundant moderate moisture associated with the ITCZ and diffluece aloft support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms from 08N-12N between 50W-63W. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending S of 21N along 81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a shallow moist environment that support scattered showers and tstms W of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W and continues to 18N20W, then resumes near 09N27W to 08N34W to 08N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N43W and continues to 08N56W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlc subtropical high extends across the E basin supporting light to gentle southeasterly flow, except in the NE basin where convection enhance winds to moderate to fresh. CIRA LPW imagery show very moist air at low levels across the basin, which is being advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist environment along with diffluence aloft supports scattered showers and tstms N of 23N E of 92W. A surface trough extends from 31N84W to 24N95W and is related to this convection. To the southwest, a thermal through currently extending over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing convection across the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned regions through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle-to-upper level diffluence is supporting scattered showers N of 18N and west of 80W. An upper-level low off the E coast of Jamaica support scattered showers over eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage related also to a tropical wave. See the section above for details. Elsewhere, GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles by Thu with showers for the Windward Islands. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves move across the basin, see the section above for details. Elsewhere, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the basin, supporting fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will dominate the basin through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/NAR
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Sahara dust and dry air continues to govern the Central Atlantic.
RTW
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 0334 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
231 AXNT20 KNHC 311653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N along 22W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer wind shear environment, however is being severely affected by a Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support scattered showers S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 20W-28W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N along 35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer wind shear environment, however is being severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery. No convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N- 17N along 51W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is being supported by a middle to upper level inverted trough and is mainly in a dry air environment as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. Moderate moisture in the southern wave environment associated with the ITCZ support scattered moderate convection from 07N-12N between 50W-53W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S of 20N along 76W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is mainly in a strong deep layer wind shear environment and Saharan dust is noted across the central Caribbean in GOES-16 RGBs imagery. However, CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with this wave, which along diffluence aloft support scattered moderate convection between Colombia and S Panama S of 12N. An upper-level low centered E of Jamaica support isolated showers across Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. A tropical wave is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay of Campeche. Its axis is S of 22N along 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported by a middle-level inverted trough that along with shallow moisture support scattered showers in the SW Gulf S of 23N E of 92W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 09N21W to 09N28W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N38W and continues to 09N49W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N52W and continues to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated tstms are from 08N-11N E of 17W and from 06N- 13N between 50W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlc subtropical high continues to extend a ridge axis SW across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf, thus supporting light to gentle south-southeasterly flow. CIRA LPW imagery show very moist air at the lower levels across the basin, which is being advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist environment along with diffluence aloft support scattered showers and tstms N of 23N E of 90W. In the E Bay of Campeche, a tropical wave support scattered showers. See tropical waves section for further details. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the SE coast of Texas and SW coast of Louisiana associated with a frontal system N of the area and anchored by a 1013 mb low in NE Texas. This front is forecast to come off the coast of Texas Wed morning, stall from SW Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Thu morning and weakening to a surface trough late Thu night. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned regions through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle to upper level diffluence is supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 18N between 79W-86W. Similar convection is in the SW basin S of 12N between 74W-84W, which is associated with the EPAC monsoon trough that connects to a 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. An upper level low off the E coast of Jamaica support isolated showers over western Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Windward Passage. GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles Thu with showers for the Windward Islands. Another tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean on Sunday with showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves move across the basin...see section above. Otherwise, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the basin, thus supporting mainly fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos
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A Hugh plume of African Sahara dust has moved off the African coast
due to mid to upper level low that has moved off shore kicking up
the dust. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 1052 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
047 AXNT20 KNHC 311206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 21W from 05N- 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern wave environment from 05N-09N between 14W-27W associated with the monsoon trough A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 32W from 07N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave. No convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W from 02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust inhibit deep convection from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is inland over Venezuela and Hispaniola. A tropical wave is along 95W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection exists in the Bay of Campeche...heavy showers and tstms are E of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N-09N east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between 75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above. The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ DM/NR
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time!
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