WTPA32 PHFO 241452 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 158.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Oahu * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday. RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40 inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30 inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the windward side of the Big Island. SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to significant coastal erosion. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Houston http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane
Friday, August 24, 2018
HURRICANE LANE STILL A SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AUG 24, 2018
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018... 1114 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
311 AXNT20 KNHC 241204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from 04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from 11N-21N between 14W-24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N- 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 61W from 02N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward across the Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-64W. A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W south of 20N to 03N79W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. A tropical wave has its axis along 94W south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 08N26W to 07N39W. The ITCZ beginsW of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 10W-32W. Scattered showers are from 02N-08N between 38W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W to 28N83W. A pre- frontal trough extends over central Florida and the E Gulf of Mexico from 27N80W to 26N86W. Scattered showers are over the Florida Peninsula. An approaching tropical wave is advecting scattered showers oveer W Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar showers due to another tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout, with a wind shift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered over southern Texas is producing NE upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to fully dissipate during the next 12 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the Cayman Islands at 18N82W. The low is enhancing scattered showers near the upper-low center, together with a tropical wave along 80W. Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas building to 9 ft. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern portion of the basin during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N and west of 76W. To the east, scattered showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-30N between 67W-74W due to an upper-level low centered near 25N72W. A surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 24N57W to 21N60W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Another trough extends from 32N34W to 26N37W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non-existent across most of the Atlantic waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday! The
storm invest off the African coast which is another wave with a low
chance for development as it moves swiftly across the Atlantic.
Some models suggest maybe some development when it slows
down as it tracks either north of the Islands or as it enters the eastern
Caribbean by the end of this month... RTW
Thursday, August 23, 2018
MAJOR HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY AUG 23, 2018...1100 HST
WTPA32 PHFO 232043 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 ...EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 157.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Oahu * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 157.5 West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected to begin today. A turn toward the west is expected Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws closer to the islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA Buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island reported a peak wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) as the northwest eyewall of Lane passed over. The buoy is now reporting light winds in the eye of the hurricane. The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday. RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big Island. SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2018...0426 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by (NHC)
972 AXNT20 KNHC 231746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 52W from 05N-20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is also embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the ITCZ. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 20N to north Colombia. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection is observed within the wave at this time. A tropical wave has its axis along 88W south of 19N, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 08N22W to 10N40W to 09N51W. The ITCZ axis begins at 09N53W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 07W- 17W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N80W to 29N83W. A stationary front continues to 27N90W to 29N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends from N Florida near 29N82W to the NE Gulf near 26N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the pre-frontal trough. A 1018 mb high is located over the northwest Gulf near 25N95W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 93W-96W. The present pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout, with a windshift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to become quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The low is producing scattered showers near the upper low center and is enhancing convection over the SW Caribbean due to upper level diffluence. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 61W-68W. Expect strong nocturnal pulses of winds through the upcoming weekend along the coast of NE Colombia and W Venezuela with seas building to 9 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front is off the coast of N Florida from 32N79W to 31N80W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N west of 75W. Scattered showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-29N between 65W-72W due to an upper level low centered near 26N72W. A surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 27N57W to 19N58W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed near 37N51W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non-existent across the eastern and central Atlantic waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now!
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FLC086-231930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0041.180823T1736Z-180823T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
136 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2018
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
North central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 330 PM EDT.
* At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hialeah, Miami Gardens, Doral, Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 2593 8033 2593 8021 2582 8029 2578 8032
2578 8038
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0041.180823T1736Z-180823T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
136 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2018
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
North central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 330 PM EDT.
* At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hialeah, Miami Gardens, Doral, Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 2593 8033 2593 8021 2582 8029 2578 8032
2578 8038
LANE DRENCHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CENTER WILL STAY OFF SHORE...AUG 23, 2018...
WTPA32 PHFO 231445 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 ...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII... ...TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Oahu * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 157.4 West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and little change in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north is anticipated tonight and Friday, as Lane's forward motion slows. A turn toward the west is expected on Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws closer to the islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday night. RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big Island. SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2018... 1036 AM EDT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY NHC
464 AXNT20 KNHC 231201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 AM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 07N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 51W from 06N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the monsoon trough. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 71W south of 20N to well inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed within this wave at this time. A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 85W from 05N- 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 08N33W to 10N40W to 09N52W. The ITCZ axis begins at 09N52W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 15W-21W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N82W to 27N90W to 29N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends from N Florida near 30N81W to the NE Gulf near 26N87W. widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the pre-frontal trough. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 93W-96W. The present pressure gradient across the gulf supports light winds throughout, with a windshift along the frontal system. In the upper levels an upper level high centered over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect for the front to become quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level trough extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to just east of northeastern Honduras. Water vapor imagery indicates plentiful moisture along and to the northwest of this trough, and it is where scattered showers are occurring. Scattered showers are also occurring over the southwestern Caribbean south of 12N between 80W-85W due to the interaction of a tropical wave, low-level wind speed convergence, and the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches east- northeastward to the far southwestern Caribbean along 09N. A slighter tighter pressure gradient behind the tropical wave along 82W will help induce strong to near gale force northeast to east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean waters off the coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela overnight. The strong trades are forecast to reach northward to 15N. Moderate to fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Fri, as little overall changes are expected with the present synoptic set-up through that period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough is analyzed over the W Atlantic from 29N67W to 24N71W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Another trough extends over the central Atlantic from 29N56W to 20N57W. Scattered showwers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed north near 36N53W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of about 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non- existent across the eastern and central Atlantic waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Still monitoring the African coast and central Atlantic into next
week. I don't see much chance for development there with are this
African dust in the area. However, I will continue to monitor all
areas...RTW
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