Thursday, September 13, 2018

FLORENCE 5PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018 UPDATE


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
923 
WTNT21 KNHC 132032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  76.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  76.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  76.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.1N  77.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.9N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.8N  79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N  82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.7N  76.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N  76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
------------------------------------------------------------------












 

STILL NO FIX TO MY SITE BBUILDER NOT LOADING! 0300 PM EDT SEPT 13, 2018

Sorry folks I been back and forth with tech support and they are putting the blame on my ISP provider at work.  I will have to check when i get home later to see if it is here at work.  So in the mean time I will continue to update the storm stuff here on the blog.  I apologize for the inconvenience this may cause you.

RTW

FLORENCE UPDATE SEPT 13, 2018 1149 AM EDT

FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
043 
WTNT31 KNHC 131444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars from
indicate that Florence was located near latitude 33.4 North,
longitude 75.5 West.  Florence is moving toward the northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion, accompanied by a further
decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A
turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed
is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion
is forecast Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South
Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern
North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of
eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday
night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA Buoy 41025,
located near Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday.  Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
--------------------------------------------------------------------







 

HERE WE GO AGAIN SITE BUILDER NOT LOADING!

Sorry folks I was trying to load my site builder and it say it failed to load once again.  I checked what caused that problem the last time which was a conflict with the new SSL certificate BS they added to my site and third party website. That is not the problem this time so I had to send tech support an email hope to have it resolved soon.  I will keep you all updated as soon as I hear from them.

My apologies for the inconvenience this may cause!

Ralph's Tropical Weather

FLORENCE STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR SEPT 12, 2018...1129 PM EDT


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
993 
WTNT31 KNHC 130248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn to the west-northwest
and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday
night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast
Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on
Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North
Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday night and Friday.  A slow motion over eastern South
Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is now a category 2
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale.  Little
change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast,
with weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday.  Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
--------------------------------------------------------------------














 




Wednesday, September 12, 2018

THIS MORNINGS UPDATES WILL BE DELAYED SEPT 12, 2018

FLORENCE UPDATES WILL BE DELAYED THIS MORNING I HAVE A DOCTORS APPOINTMENT AT 10 AM EDT SO USE THE LINKS TO NHC...RTW

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

FLORENCE UPDATE 1114 PM EDT SEPT 11, 2018


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
575 
WTNT31 KNHC 120253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A motion
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early
Thursday.  Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late
Thursday into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North
Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week.  This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------















FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT EXPANDS IN SIZE SEPT 11, 2018...0458 PM EDT


FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
226 
WTNT31 KNHC 112040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.  Additional watches and
warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Florence was located by satellite near latitude 27.5 North,
longitude 67.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest
near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and
northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected
to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Further strengthening is
forecast tonight and Wednesday.  While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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