TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS FROM INVEST 97L

200 
WTNT31 KNHC 220248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this general motion will likely continue for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected for the next day or two.  The
depression is forecast to dissipate late this weekend or early next
week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

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ralphstropicalweather.com

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
ELEVEN WILL BE A SHORT LIVED SYSTEM DUE TO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...RTW

 STORM INVEST 98L
THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL COME CLOSE TO THE COAST THEN TURN BACK OUT TO SEA AS A FRONT SWEEPS IT EAST.

 STORM INVEST 99L
THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT IT ALSO MOVES INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WHEN IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 21, 2018... 0336 PM EDT

Invest 97L still encountering upper level shear development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 98L still lacking thunderstorm activity.  Development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 99L continues to look good on satellite and NHC raised the chance for development within 48 hrs to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 21, 2018

The tropical Atlantic looking busy again however, only a few systems have a chance for development.

Invest 99L off the African coast is looking rather impressive on visible satellite and on color image this morning.  The system has a nice outflow and color image shows very cold cloud tops a sign that this system is becoming better organized.  A depression or tropical storm can form at anytime.

This system has a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs and a MED chance 60% within 5-days.  The chance for development more than likely increase later today because the system continues to show signs of organization...RTW

Invest 98L southeast of Bermuda the remnants of Florence is void of thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to loop back toward the coast and recurve out to sea.  I dont see much development with this system at this time.  Chance for development is LOW 0% within 48 hrs and LOW 20% with 5-days...RT

Invest 97L has an exposed circulation to the west-northwest of the thunderstorms. This system is presently passing through a shear environment with upper level shear from the west seperating the thunderstorms the east and away from circulation.  Development if any will be slow to occur.  Chances for development are LOW 10% within 48 hrs and LOW 10% within 5-days... RTW

There are watching a non-tropical low pressure in the north Atlantic bewteen Bermuda and the Azores that has LOW chance 10% within 48 hrs and a HIGH chance 70% within 5-days.  Not much going on here now but there is a frontal boundary where a low could form from...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 20, 2018... 0322 PM EDT

Invest 97L not looking as well define as earlier.  In fact this system seems to be in a shear environment and dry air is also interacting with this 97L.  Chances for development are still low and have dropped to 10% within 48 hrs and within 5-days.

Invest 98L has not yet developed but most of the models suggesting development from this system over the north Central Atlantic in the coming days.  This system has a MED chance 50% within 5- days.  No a threat to land a fish storm!

Another area of investigation will emerge off the African coast In a day or so.  That has a LOW chance 0% within 48 hrs and 20% within 5-days.

An area of low pressure near Bermuda more than likely the remnants of Florence seems to be getting better organized and is forecast to turn back toward the Eastern seaboard and maybe brush the coast as it turns north and east.

I will continue to monitor the Caribbean for development in the coming weeks...RTW