HURRICANE UPDATE OCT 8, 2018... 1140 AM EDT

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...NHC

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 8, 2018...0836 PM EDT

Michael nearing hurricane strength.

This morning satellite shows an increase in convection (thunderstorms) around the center of circulation and plenty of deep tropical moisture to feed this cyclone.  Michael will more than likely become a hurricane this morning sometime today.

Michael is poised to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle as a cat two hurricane.

The track remains unchanged north to northeast across northern Florida.  This is due to a trough across the Mid-Planes and high pressure in the Atlantic.  These two system has made a path for Michael to track through.

Deep tropical moisture to the east of the center is already rising north across Cuba, and the Florida straits.  Although Michael is not expected to directly impact southern Florida, the Indirect affect of fast moving rain bands and squally conditions will affect the Peninsula as the cyclone tracks northward.  Since south Florida is on the dirty side of this storm system you can't rule out water sports and isolated tornados as some of these fast moving rain bands move north and west across the area.

Interest from Alabama to Tampa should continue to monitor the progress of Michael and plan ahead for the possibility of Hurricane conditions... RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018... 1117 PM EDT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.  A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night,
and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN OCT 7, 2018...0712 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Northwest Caribbean. 

Satellite imagery shows that Michael's inflow is being cut off by westerly upper level shear at this time.  Slow strengthening is forecast until Michael moves away from the Northwest Caribbean and enters the southern Gulf.

Recon relocated the center of Michael further east of previous location and NHC had to adjust the forecast track Eastward as well. 

The question, is will Michael reform the center further east of present location again?  If so This would throw a monkey wrench in the forecast for the west coast of Florida and the Lower keys if that eastward relocation continues.

The northeast bend over northern Florida at the end of forecast is in response to trough that is tracking east from the central U.S., the timing of this trough determines when the north eastward turn will occur.  Either it crosses the Florida Big Bend or further south of there.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge is keeping the cyclone from tracking northeast for now so the cyclone is forecast to track northward around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle and southward along the Florida west coast including the Keys should closely monitor the progress of Michael and be ready in case the forecast keeps shifting eastward.
RTW

STORM INVEST 92L A POSSIBLE EUROPEAN THREAT

Storm Investigation 92L looks to be a possible European threat, however, if it does acquire sub-tropical or tropical status the conditions are forecast to become unfavorable further east of this system.

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0102 PM EDT

Tropical Depression 14
Fourteen continues organizing and a tropical storm can form at anytime time. 

Models still suggesting a northerly track then a northeasterly track around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Big Bend should continue to monitor the progress of T.D. Fourtine...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0209 AM EDT

PTC  Fourteen
Fourteen continues to show signs of organization and a depression or tropical storm could form at anytime...RTW