1. Michael continues causing havoc with gust winds and heavy rainfall as it tracks to the northeast.
Michael still has the potential for toppling trees snapping tree limbs and causing power outages along it's path. Heavy rains to an area affected by Florence is vulnerable and at risk for more flooding.
Michael is forecast to possibly strengthen some over the Atlantic as it speeds away.
2. Leslie still hanging in but is expected to be downgraded by the end of the forecast to a depression.
3. The center of Nadine is exposed with thunderstorms located to the east of center. Nadine is encountering wind shear from the west. Nadine should be a short lived storm no threat to land.
4. NHC is monitoring the Central and South Caribbean for possible development within 5 days. They are giving this area a 50% chance.
If this low does develop it is forecast to track over Central America as high pressure builds west over the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet for now...RTW
A note to my viewers since I have had many issues with getting website up and running I will be closing it down at end of this season. A lack of time, and to much to do for one person and the unreliable internet connection here at work, has made it impossible to keep the website updated on time and current. I will do my best to keep you updated here on the blog. I will keep alerting you all of potential tropical development as I see it during my daily satellite and model review. I won't to thank those who help me keep up the site for so many years.
Ralph
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 10, 2018 0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT34 KNHC 102054 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Suwanee River. The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on late Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph (96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
DAMAGE VIDEOS LINKS AND PICTURES FROM MICAHAEL RATH OCT 10, 2108
Gulf Coast Storm Center Retweeted
A look at what houses in #Mexico Beach, #Florida look like right now. This is a follow up from the previous clip posted. They are now submerged and were no match for #HurricaneMichael (via Tessa Talarico) #Hurricane #Michael #HurricaneMichael2018
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050098823194963968
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Jeff Gammons @StormVisuals 55s56 seconds ago
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Hundreds of #FHP Troopers en route to the Panhandle from across Florida to help with #HURRICANEMICHAEL recovery efforts...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050111898098774016
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Another video of the destruction from Mexico Beach, Florida
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050102541189550080
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Blazin3596 and Jonah Heinl liked
Here's evidence of storm surge at its worst. Brett Adair, an experienced field meteorologist, came upon a massive storm surge during #HurricaneMichael and abandoned his vehicle in search for higher ground.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050095206157017088
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James Spann Retweeted
Trees are being snatched from the roots in Panama City, FL! All of my friends and family please be safe! #HurricaneMichael
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050090437757870083
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Gary Detman @GaryDetmanNews 2h2 hours ago
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050097955489947650
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David OvalleVerified account @DavidOvalle305 52m52 minutes ago
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Douglas Clifford @cliftimestweet 1h1 hour ago
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Jim Rupe @JimRupe 1h1 hour ago
ABC NewsVerified account @ABC
1h1 hour ago
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050098823194963968
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Jeff Gammons @StormVisuals 55s56 seconds ago
Complete distraction to the northeastern side of this bank. #hurricaneMichael #panamacity
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NeEmergencyNewsWX Retweeted
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050111898098774016
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Owen Anastas Retweeted
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050102541189550080
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Blazin3596 and Jonah Heinl liked
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050095206157017088
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James Spann Retweeted
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050090437757870083
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Gary Detman @GaryDetmanNews 2h2 hours ago
Here's dramatic video of a home being obliterated as Hurricane Michael makes landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a category 4 with 155 mph winds. @cbs12 http://bit.ly/2PlNRDT
https://twitter.com/i/status/1050097955489947650
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David OvalleVerified account @DavidOvalle305 52m52 minutes ago
Douglas Clifford @cliftimestweet 1h1 hour ago
Pine trees litter a yard in Port St. Joe on Garrison Avenue on Wednesday afternoon after Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. #HurricaneMichael @TB_Times
Jim Rupe @JimRupe 1h1 hour ago
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Debris flies amidst heavy rains as #HurricaneMichael makes landfall in Panama City, Florida with 155mph winds. https://abcn.ws/2CCfB4A
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Behind the storm now and seeing the damage. Surreal. #Michael
FROM NEWS 10 IN MIAMI BRIAN NORCROSS
Bryan Norcross @bnorcrossWPLG
56m56 minutes ago
READY FOR #MICHAEL: In the path of the eye take every precaution possible. Get mattresses off beds and turn an interior hall into a bunker. Take everything you need to stay there-food, chairs, phones, rain-gear. Use the mattresses for cover and to block doors to exterior rooms.
THE EYE OF POTENTIALLY CASTASTROPIC MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST 1208 PM EDT
NOTED ON RADAR THAT TORNADO VORTEX DETECTED WITHIN THE EYE WALL BY RADAR. TAKE COVER THOSE OF YOU THAT CHOOSE TO RISK YOUR LIFE AND STAY BEHIND.
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 10, 2018...1109 AM EDT
History is unfolding in the Florida Panhandle today as Major Hurricane Michael makes landfall over the Florida Panhandle. I was hearing to a NOAA researcher Stanley Goldenburg this morning, that was flying missions into Michael over night.
He said that Michael is a strong Category 4 borderline Category 5. He mentioned that this is unlike any hurricane ever impacting this coast line. Flight winds using a special small drone recorded 170 mph.
This is a catastrophic event about to unfold and I hope people evacuated and left the coast.
I will post live radar away from the landfall location so we can maintain a good feed in case of wind damage to radar in the path of Michael.
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1100 PM EDT
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100252 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has not measured thus far. The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next 24 hours between a substantial ridge to the east and a highly amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA. Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday. The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be rushed to completion. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these areas...NHC
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT44 KNHC 091443 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one another. The outflow pattern has become better established over the hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected when the system moves over the western Atlantic. Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. 4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so....NHC
Tropical Outlook Oct 9, 2018...0426 PM EDT
Mean while in the Atlantic we have pesky Leslie still trapped in a blocked environment waiting for another stronger system to help me it out.
Nadine over the east Atlantic not a threat to anyone but shipping.
RTW
Nadine over the east Atlantic not a threat to anyone but shipping.
RTW
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1140 AM
Michael continues to strengthen dispite dry air and moderate shear.
Latest visible shows improvement in the inflow and outflow cloud structure. So it seems that the Cyclone in Intensifying as forecast.
Today is your last day for evacuation and complete preparations so don't waist anytime.
Life-threatening storm surge expected. Remember these Gulf basins allow for inland funneling of ocean water with no where for the water to flow back out to sea. Staying along the coast in these conditions will be deadly. So please heed the advice of emergency Management and local authorities...RTW
Latest visible shows improvement in the inflow and outflow cloud structure. So it seems that the Cyclone in Intensifying as forecast.
Today is your last day for evacuation and complete preparations so don't waist anytime.
Life-threatening storm surge expected. Remember these Gulf basins allow for inland funneling of ocean water with no where for the water to flow back out to sea. Staying along the coast in these conditions will be deadly. So please heed the advice of emergency Management and local authorities...RTW
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