TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 10, 2018...EST

I am on a trip with family so I will not be writing up my own tropicak outlook, so I am borrowing NHC's for now.
RTW

Area being monitored:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, these
winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while
the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Waves:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N 
southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map
analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance.
ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N
southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop
satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation
is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N 
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 43W and 48W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from
14N to 17N between 34W and 41W.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W
and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N 
southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola,
into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of 
Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from
80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of 
Honduras and Nicaragua. 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 9, 2018...1233 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1. A tropical wave near 26-25 degrees west is not showing signs of organization at this time.

2. A tropical wave near 48-47 degrees west is passing through  a westerly shear environment.  There are no sign of organization at this time.

3.  A tropical wave near 78-77 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

4.  A tropical wave near 96-95 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.  This wave over Mexico and a portion of the Bay of Capache will be moving out of the area.  This will be the last update on this wave.

Troughs:

A trough near 68-67 degrees west is no longer Interacting with trough north of the Eastern Bahamas.

The trough near the Bahamas seems to be producing showers and storms to the east of the axis. 

Area being watched by RTW:

I am monitoring an area east of the northeast Leeward extending northwestward to several 100 miles north of Puerto Rico.  Although nothing is showing right now some models are hinting at low pressure developing in the region in the week to come.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 8, 2018...0951 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 20 degrees West is now void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 48 degrees West  has some showers along the north a axis of the wave.  There are no signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees West is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

4.  A westward moving tropical wave across 86-85 degrees west is also void of any thunderstorms.  There are no signs of organization.

Troughs:

A surface trough near 65-64 degrees West is producing showers and storms along the northern axis of the trough just to the east of Puerto Rico.  This surface trough seems to be Interacting with an upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico.  Heavy rains with Gusty winds will spread over Puerto Rico later today as this trough tracks slowly westward.

Elsewhere in the tropics all remains quiet.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 7, 2018...1137 AM EST

Monzoon Trough:

A strong area of showers and storms off the southwest African coast is rather unusual for this time of the season.  However, conditions south of the 10 degree north is where the monzoon Trough is located and that has been one of the fuel source this season that has enhanced storms in this region.  There are no signs of development, but I will monitor it as it tracks westward.

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 43 degrees west is not showing signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2. A westward moving tropical wave near 68-67 degrees west is also not showing signs of formation.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 82 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Surface Trough:

There is a surface trough near 57 degrees west that is firing up showers and storms to the southeast of the troughs axis.  Southwesterly shear over the Southern Windward islands will prevent any organization at this time.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 6, 2018...0957 AM EDT.

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and in the Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of organization at this time...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 5, 2018...0916 AM EST

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 36 degree west.  Showers and storm are east of the waves southern acis along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone).  There no signs of tropical cyclone formation.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58-57 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Eslewhere in the Atlantic all remains quiet through Wednesday...RTW

Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI

SET CLOCK BACK AN HOUR TONIGHT

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 3, 2018...0114 PM EDT

There are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and Caribbean.  None of these waves are showing signs of tropical development.
RTW

 

radar detecting water spout off shore Florida west coast

Water spouts detected off shore central Florida west coast.  Remember if any of these water spouts make it on shore it becomes a tornado.  There was four detected earlier.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 2, 2018...1028 AM EDT

Tropical Wave:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 28 degrees west is not showing g signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

Please note tropical waves added to this surface map were added by myself.  I am borrowing their map until I can come e up with another map of my own.
Here is a link to there site:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx

REMINDER TO SET YOU CLOCK BACK AN HOUR WEEKEND

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS STILL TRACKING EAST

Latest radar still showing strong but broken line of storms over the northeast Gulf, Panhandle and Alabama tracking east.  This line is prompting Marine warnings that could become severe thunderstorm warnings as it moves on shore.  Just a heads up!  RTW

COOLER, WETTER AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST THIS WINTER

This is a precursor of what to expect this winter with EL Nino conditions.

A cold Front dropping a frontal boundary over the warm Gulf waters clashing with cold air from the north.

This will produce pre-front squall lines ahead of frontal boundary and enhance the severe storm chance with the possibility of tornadoes.

So unlike this past winter where we had La Nina conditions and dry weather and warmer winter this will be the opposite, wetter with severe weather, and colder temps...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 1, 2018...1031 AM EDT

Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 23 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

2.  Another westward moving tropical wave near 52 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.

SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING

Line of strong the severe storms tracking east over Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning.  Stay alert

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR GUKF COAST STATES OCT 31, 2018

SPC AC 311956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

   Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing
   damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas to
   the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Have removed severe probabilities from portions of the Big Country
   into north Texas, where the south/southeastward progression of a
   cold front and an expansive trailing precipitation shield are likely
   minimizing any severe threat. Additionally, Marginal probabilities
   have been extended westward towards El Paso, where forcing for
   ascent with the primary shortwave impulse may continue to support a
   localized hail/wind threat.

   Otherwise, a greater tornado/damaging wind potential is still
   expected to materialize late this evening into tonight from
   southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley, and no changes have
   been made to the ongoing probabilities here. For more information on
   this threat, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Picca.. 10/31/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

   ...TX today to LA/MS overnight...
   A midlevel shortwave trough now near El Paso will continue eastward
   across TX through tonight.  Weak cyclogenesis is expected by this
   evening and continuing through tonight, along a pre-existing front
   from central TX to the Mid South.  A moist low-level air mass is
   already present south of the front, with low 70s boundary-layer
   dewpoints spreading across the northwest Gulf coast.  Gradual mass
   response to the cyclogenesis will result in strengthening low-level
   flow/shear, especially tonight across LA/MS.

   Ongoing convection in TX has largely remained elevated atop the
   frontal surface, but may gradually transition to surface-based
   storms along the front later this afternoon.  Isolated strong-severe
   storms will also be possible this afternoon/evening into southwest
   TX, along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and in the
   zone of stronger low-midlevel ascent preceding the shortwave trough.
   Farther east, the ongoing warm sector convection across the upper TX
   coast should persist through the afternoon and spread slowly
   eastward/northeastward.  Additional warm sector storm development is
   also expected tonight along the moist axis into southern LA.

   Wind profiles are only marginally favorable for organized/supercell
   storms at present across TX, with slow strengthening of vertical
   shear expected later this afternoon through tonight farther east
   toward the lower MS Valley.  A few supercells could evolve from the
   ongoing upper TX coast convection, as well as embedded
   supercells/bowing segments along the front from central into east
   TX.  This frontal convection will likely evolve into a line that
   will move eastward overnight, with an accompanying threat for
   damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.
   The more substantial supercell/tornado threat is expected overnight
   into parts of LA (and possibly MS) within the moist sector, and
   where low-level shear becomes the strongest.  A strong tornado or
   two will be possible, especially with any pre-frontal supercell
   clusters, where effective SRH increases to greater than 400 m2/s2 in
   a moist environment with sufficient surface-based buoyancy.

Tornado Outlook 

 Strong Wind Outlook

 Hail Outlook

 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2018...0940 AM EDT

Tropical Waves:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 46 degrees and 45 degrees west has some moisture associated with it, however, upper level shear is disrupting  the shower and storm development at this time.

2. Another westward moving tropical wave near 60 degrees and 58 west is still not showing any signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday...RTW

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 30, 2018... 1107 AM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days,
but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over
the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday.  Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg