Wednesday, May 15, 2024

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 15, 2024..

 


Today commences the beginning of the East Pacific Hurricane Season, and the NHC begins the tropical weather outlook and monitors waves coming off the coast of Africa. I also began to monitor here as well, and so far there are no signs of development in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic continue to warm, which would be fuel for tropical cyclone formation in the coming months.


At this time, upper-level winds are not favorable for development.
Green: FAVORABLE/ Yellow: NEUTRAL/ Red: UNFAVORABLE

White Increasing shear/ Blue Decreasing shear


Water vapor imagery in the upper level shows plenty of moisture across the Atlantic basin, except for a small area between 65 degrees west and 50 degrees west and 20 degrees north to 16 degrees north. So at the upper levels, it is favorable, except we need all levels of the atmosphere to have equal amounts of moisture. Mid-levels are a bit drier, and lower-levels are even drier. So it is not favorable for development at this time.
Upper Level Moisture (plenty of moisture)


Mid Level Moisture (Less Favorable)

Lower level Moisture (Even drier Not Favorable)


You can see in this model that some of the dry air is being replaced by blues and greens, which is precipitation.

There's not much going on with the EURO Ensemble model.

There is a bit more going on with the GEFS Ensemble, including a low tracking north from the Caribbean and across eastern Cuba, then tracking west over the northern coast of Cuba and looping back over Central Cuba, then tracking north between Florida and the West Bahamas. Nothing significant, though!

There is not much going on with this Euro in this ensemble as well.

This ensemble shows a stronger low passing over Haiti.

This is the GEFS ensemble, and it also shows the small, low tracking north between the east Florida coast and the western Bahamas. 

There are no tropical wave symbols in the Atlantic at this time. All remains quiet for now.




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