TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 0311 AM EDT

The Atlantic remains tropical wave free at this time.  NHC is still monitoring between 70°-65° West for low pressure development by the middle of next week.  If it does develop the track should be north and northeastward.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 18, 2018 0854 PM EDT

There are no tropical waves in the Atlantic at this time.  NHC is still monitoring an elongated areas of showers and storms, where low pressure could develop by mid next week.  This system if it does develop should not be a threat to the U.S.

I am still watching the East Pacific and Caribbean into next week as well since GFS still insist on development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAY 17, 2019

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.

EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 91E

Its odd to see disturbances tracking east in the east Pacific instead of west.  Invest 91E is doing just that.  See below NHC post.
RTW

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a weak and
elongated area of low pressure.  Gradual development of this system
is possible during the early and middle part of next week while the
disturbance moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

NEW 5-DAY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

NHC is monitoring an area south-southwest of Bermuda for sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation.  (NOT A THREAT FOR THE U.S.)  See below post by NHC.

 Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17, 2019 1121 AM EDT

Tropical Atlantic remains wave free.

I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by next week.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW 

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

 

TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 1236 PM EDT

Tropical Waves:
At this time there are no tropical waves in the Atlantic.


East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean:
I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean for low pressure development into next.  GFS model continues to insist that low pressure or a tropical system will develop in the East Pacific and traverse over Central American into the Caribbean.   

East Caribbean:
GFS is now suggesting low pressure development south of Puerto Rico next week as well.  I find this to be highly uncertain at this time. 
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

Still no signs of tropical waves at this time in the Atlantic.  However, I am still monitoring the South and Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation for by the end of next coming week.  At this time there is nothing showing, but GFS continues to insist on low pressure developing or traversing over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  It could be nothing at all, but I will keep you posted.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

TROPICAL OUTLOOK STARTS TODAY HERE AT RTW BLOG

Today is the beginning of the East Pacific Hurricane Season and I begin tracking waves across the Atlantic that could develop in the Caribbean before the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season June 1st, 2019. 

At this time the tropical Atlantic remains quiet with no tropical waves at this time.  There is an area of the Southern Caribbean which is not showing anything at this time, but the GFS model has been hinting on development in this area for the past week.  Although nothing may occur in this area because long range forecast are not very accurate, I will watch the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas for any signs of early development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of Tropical TidBits.com

 Courtesy of Tropical TidBits.com

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY

FLOOD ADVISORY LOWER KEYS

FLC087-071830-
/O.NEW.KKEY.FA.Y.0004.190507T1730Z-190507T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Keys in Monroe FL-
130 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Key West has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Lower Keys in Monroe County in Florida...

* Until 230 PM EDT..

* At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one and a half inches of rain has already
fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Key West, Boca Chica Channel Bridge, Boca Chica, Fleming Key, Key
Haven and Sunset Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 7.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the advisory
area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause significant ponding
of water in urban areas, highways, and streets as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.

LAT...LON 2454 8184 2459 8184 2462 8182 2464 8169
2453 8170 2453 8171 2452 8182

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY

FLZ073-074-173-071745-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
115 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

* At 115 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Miami International Airport, or
near South Miami. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah
Gardens, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley,
Westchester, Gladeview, Glenvar Heights, Fountainbleau, University
Of Miami, Coconut Grove, Coral Terrace, West Little River and
Olympia Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON

FLZ073-173-174-071800-
Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
111 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 111 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Princeton
to 9 miles south of Florida City. Movement was south at 10 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead Miami Speedway, The Redland, Florida City,
Homestead Base, Naranja, Princeton, Leisure City and Homestead
Bayfront Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.