TROPICAL UPDATE INVEST 91L AND TROPICAL WAVE OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 1009 PM EDT

The Atlantic still remains tropical wave free, however, off the southwest coast of Africa along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone) there is a strong disturbance that has emerged off the coast between 20°-10° West.  This could be our first strong wave even though its to early for the Cavo Verde season begin.

I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean.  GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.

As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.

NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas.  Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com

DISTURBANCE EAST IF THE BAHAMAS IS NOW INVEST 90L

NHC is now calling the disturbance east of the Eastern Bahamas Storm investigation 90L.  This disturbance is not a threat for the U.S.
Most of the models suggest a short lived storm system.
RTW

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 0311 AM EDT

The Atlantic remains tropical wave free at this time.  NHC is still monitoring between 70°-65° West for low pressure development by the middle of next week.  If it does develop the track should be north and northeastward.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190502
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 18, 2018 0854 PM EDT

There are no tropical waves in the Atlantic at this time.  NHC is still monitoring an elongated areas of showers and storms, where low pressure could develop by mid next week.  This system if it does develop should not be a threat to the U.S.

I am still watching the East Pacific and Caribbean into next week as well since GFS still insist on development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.com

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAY 17, 2019

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.

EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 91E

Its odd to see disturbances tracking east in the east Pacific instead of west.  Invest 91E is doing just that.  See below NHC post.
RTW

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a weak and
elongated area of low pressure.  Gradual development of this system
is possible during the early and middle part of next week while the
disturbance moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

NEW 5-DAY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

NHC is monitoring an area south-southwest of Bermuda for sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation.  (NOT A THREAT FOR THE U.S.)  See below post by NHC.

 Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17, 2019 1121 AM EDT

Tropical Atlantic remains wave free.

I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by next week.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW 

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

 

TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 1236 PM EDT

Tropical Waves:
At this time there are no tropical waves in the Atlantic.


East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean:
I am still monitoring the East Pacific and Northwest Caribbean for low pressure development into next.  GFS model continues to insist that low pressure or a tropical system will develop in the East Pacific and traverse over Central American into the Caribbean.   

East Caribbean:
GFS is now suggesting low pressure development south of Puerto Rico next week as well.  I find this to be highly uncertain at this time. 
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

Still no signs of tropical waves at this time in the Atlantic.  However, I am still monitoring the South and Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation for by the end of next coming week.  At this time there is nothing showing, but GFS continues to insist on low pressure developing or traversing over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  It could be nothing at all, but I will keep you posted.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

 Courtesy of TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM

TROPICAL OUTLOOK STARTS TODAY HERE AT RTW BLOG

Today is the beginning of the East Pacific Hurricane Season and I begin tracking waves across the Atlantic that could develop in the Caribbean before the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season June 1st, 2019. 

At this time the tropical Atlantic remains quiet with no tropical waves at this time.  There is an area of the Southern Caribbean which is not showing anything at this time, but the GFS model has been hinting on development in this area for the past week.  Although nothing may occur in this area because long range forecast are not very accurate, I will watch the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas for any signs of early development.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

 Courtesy of Tropical TidBits.com

 Courtesy of Tropical TidBits.com

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