HERE IS THE STORM PREDICTIONS OUTLOOK. IT IS RARE TO SEE THIS EXTREMELY HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK, IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS IN MAY. SCHOOLS AND BUSINESS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THIS HIGH LEVEL 5 RISK.
Monday, May 20, 2019
TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 20, 2019 0404 PM EDT
Tropical Update:
1. First wave of the Atlantic I spoke of last night is now on the surface map. The wave is located between 16°W and 17°W There are no signs of organization at this time.
2. Invest 90L continues to show some signs of organization but is still has not acquired a closed low level circulation and is looking more like a hybrid system or as they call it a Sub-Tropical system. NHC has now raised the chances of development to HIGH 70% within 48 hours or 70% within 5-days.
Bermuda should monitor the system even though it will be a short lived storm as it merges with a frontal boundary in the coming days.
3. I continue to monitor the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean as GFS continues to flip flop between developing a low in the East Pacific then tracking it into the Caribbean. Still highly questionable.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Courtesy of National Hurricane Center
Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com
1. First wave of the Atlantic I spoke of last night is now on the surface map. The wave is located between 16°W and 17°W There are no signs of organization at this time.
2. Invest 90L continues to show some signs of organization but is still has not acquired a closed low level circulation and is looking more like a hybrid system or as they call it a Sub-Tropical system. NHC has now raised the chances of development to HIGH 70% within 48 hours or 70% within 5-days.
Bermuda should monitor the system even though it will be a short lived storm as it merges with a frontal boundary in the coming days.
3. I continue to monitor the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean as GFS continues to flip flop between developing a low in the East Pacific then tracking it into the Caribbean. Still highly questionable.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Courtesy of National Hurricane Center
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201730 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are showing signs of organization. Although recent satellite wind data suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com
Sunday, May 19, 2019
TROPICAL UPDATE INVEST 91L AND TROPICAL WAVE OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 1009 PM EDT
The Atlantic still remains tropical wave free, however, off the southwest coast of Africa along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone) there is a strong disturbance that has emerged off the coast between 20°-10° West. This could be our first strong wave even though its to early for the Cavo Verde season begin.
I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean. GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.
As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.
NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas. Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW
I will watch it as I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean. GFS continues to insist on development and could be a problem for either the Yucatan or Southern Mexico.
As for the models suggesting development from the African disturbance or area of showers and storms there are no indications of development from this system at this time.
NHC has up the chance for development for invest 90L east of the Bahamas. Models are still suggesting a short lived storm at this time as it merges with other weather systems in the coming week.
RTW
National Hurricane Center
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192328 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by Monday 2 AM EDT. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
DISTURBANCE EAST IF THE BAHAMAS IS NOW INVEST 90L
Most of the models suggest a short lived storm system.
RTW
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Blake
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2019 0311 AM EDT
The Atlantic remains tropical wave free at this time. NHC is still monitoring between 70°-65° West for low pressure development by the middle of next week. If it does develop the track should be north and northeastward.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
National Hurricane Center
000 ABNT20 KNHC 190502 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Saturday, May 18, 2019
TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 18, 2018 0854 PM EDT
There are no tropical waves in the Atlantic at this time. NHC is still monitoring an elongated areas of showers and storms, where low pressure could develop by mid next week. This system if it does develop should not be a threat to the U.S.
I am still watching the East Pacific and Caribbean into next week as well since GFS still insist on development.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
I am still watching the East Pacific and Caribbean into next week as well since GFS still insist on development.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart
Friday, May 17, 2019
EAST PACIFIC STORM INVESTIGATION 91E
Its odd to see disturbances tracking east in the east Pacific instead of west. Invest 91E is doing just that. See below NHC post.
RTW
RTW
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri May 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a weak and elongated area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle part of next week while the disturbance moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
NEW 5-DAY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
NHC is monitoring an area south-southwest of Bermuda for sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation. (NOT A THREAT FOR THE U.S.) See below post by NHC.
National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
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