Tropical Wave:
#1 A westward moving tropical wave near 36°/37° West is not showing any signs of development.
Southern African coast south of 10° North:
Strong monsoonal thunderstorms moving off the coast. Conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic at this time. Could be the next tropical wave.
Gulf Coast:
I will be monitoring the Southern and Gulf for low pressure development. Two models suggest coastal low and possible heavy rains and maybe severe storms as it tracks north and northeast. This is not for sure so it remains highly questionable.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Friday, May 31, 2019
Thursday, May 30, 2019
HURRICANE SUPPLY TAX FREE WEEK FOR FLORIDIANS
https:/https://twitter.com/wsvn/status/1134165640644
WSVN 7 NewsVerified account @wsvn
6m6 minutes ago
878340/twitter.com/wsvn/status/1134165640644878340
WSVN 7
TAX-FREE WEEK - With hurricane season officially starting Saturday, Floridians will have the chance to buy supplies tax-free for a full week starting tomorrow.
TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 30, 2019 1254 PM EDT
Tropical Wave:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°/34° West is interacting with the Iner-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) south of 10° North. There are no signs of organization.
Strong showers and storms off the Coast of Africa south of 10° North is mostly related with the Manzoonal Trough. This could be the next tropical wave..
Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet.
RTW
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°/34° West is interacting with the Iner-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) south of 10° North. There are no signs of organization.
Strong showers and storms off the Coast of Africa south of 10° North is mostly related with the Manzoonal Trough. This could be the next tropical wave..
Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet.
RTW
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 29, 2019 1213 PM EDT
Tropical Waves:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 32°/31° West is not showing sign of organization at this time.
2. A westward moving tropical wave with the southern axis over Columbia is near 67°/66° West is also not showing signs of organization at this time.
Mazoon trough across Panama and Central America and 1011 mb low is enhancing rain and storms over this region producing flash flood potential for Southern Central America.
Numerous clouds, showers and storms over the central Caribbean maybe associated with a mid to upper level trough in the area. I will monitor it for development although non of the models suggest development in the region at this time.
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 32°/31° West is not showing sign of organization at this time.
2. A westward moving tropical wave with the southern axis over Columbia is near 67°/66° West is also not showing signs of organization at this time.
Mazoon trough across Panama and Central America and 1011 mb low is enhancing rain and storms over this region producing flash flood potential for Southern Central America.
Numerous clouds, showers and storms over the central Caribbean maybe associated with a mid to upper level trough in the area. I will monitor it for development although non of the models suggest development in the region at this time.
Thursday, May 23, 2019
INVEST 91E UPDATE
Courtesy of
National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over Central America have become less organized since yesterday. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while the large circulation interacts with land. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of Central America as this system remains nearly stationary through the weekend. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Latto/Brown
NOAA FORECAST CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Vivian GonzalezVerified account @VivianGonzalez7
2h2 hours ago
NOAA forecasting a near-normal 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ongoing El Niño to persist. @wsvn @7weather #flwx #StormStation
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 23, 2019 1135 AM EDT
TROPICAL WAVES:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°-34° West is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. Thunderstorms between 40°-10° West and South of 5° North are mainly associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The southern axis of this wave seems to be enhancing thunderstorms along this area.
2. I'm still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation the first week of June. NHC is monitoring a low INVEST 91E inland over Central America that could move into the southern or northwest Caribbean and develop.
NOTE TO MY FOLLOWERS!
I WILL BE OUT ON VACATION WITH THE FAMILY MAY 25-28. I WILL NOT BE DOING MY GRAPHIC DURING THOSE DAYS SINCE I WON'T HAVE MY LAP TOP WITH ME, SO I WILL USE THIRD PARTY MAPS AND POST QUICK UPDATES FROM MY PHONE WHEN POSSIBLE. I WILL RESUME REGULAR UPDATES MAY 29, 2019. I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
RTW
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 33°-34° West is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. Thunderstorms between 40°-10° West and South of 5° North are mainly associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The southern axis of this wave seems to be enhancing thunderstorms along this area.
2. I'm still monitoring the East Pacific and Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation the first week of June. NHC is monitoring a low INVEST 91E inland over Central America that could move into the southern or northwest Caribbean and develop.
NOTE TO MY FOLLOWERS!
I WILL BE OUT ON VACATION WITH THE FAMILY MAY 25-28. I WILL NOT BE DOING MY GRAPHIC DURING THOSE DAYS SINCE I WON'T HAVE MY LAP TOP WITH ME, SO I WILL USE THIRD PARTY MAPS AND POST QUICK UPDATES FROM MY PHONE WHEN POSSIBLE. I WILL RESUME REGULAR UPDATES MAY 29, 2019. I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
RTW
National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu May 23 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along portions of the west coast of Central America and the far eastern North Pacific are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the large circulation has moved inland over Central America and the chance for development has decreased. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of Central America as this system remains nearly stationary during the next few days. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Latto/Brown
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
SEVERE WEATHER PROABILITY MORE TORNADO
Tornado Quest @TornadoQuest
15m15 minutes ago
ICYMI: Public Severe Weather Outlook from @NWSSPC for parts of IL/KS/MO/OK. An active day forecast with all hazards, including tornadoes, possible. Stay weather aware regardless of what risk area you’re in: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html … #ilwx #kswx #mowx #okwx #WeatherReady
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 22, 2019 1206 PM EDT
TROPICAL OUTLOOK:
1. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL NEAR 27°-26° WEST IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE SCATER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 5° NORTH BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
2. I AM STILL MONITORING THE EAST PACIFIC AND CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS ALL REMAINS QUIET.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 21, 2019 0134 PM EDT
CORRECTION MADE TO SURFACE MAP BELOW. I ADDED ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
Atlantic Tropical Waves:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 21°West and 22° West is not showing signs of organization. However, there is plenty of thunderstorm activity present south of 10° North from 53° West to 10° West. These storms are not associated with the wave.
2. I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean for development as the GFS model continues to insist that low pressure will for somewhere in the circled area and could develop either Sub-tropical or tropical. I will keep you posted.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
Courtesy of tropical Tidbits.com
Atlantic Tropical Waves:
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 21°West and 22° West is not showing signs of organization. However, there is plenty of thunderstorm activity present south of 10° North from 53° West to 10° West. These storms are not associated with the wave.
2. I am still monitoring the East Pacific and the Southern Caribbean for development as the GFS model continues to insist that low pressure will for somewhere in the circled area and could develop either Sub-tropical or tropical. I will keep you posted.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
ANDREA DOWNGRADED TO A SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSPATE TODAY
ANDREA WEAKER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
RTW
RTW
National Hurricane Center
704 WTNT31 KNHC 211434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Courtesy of Tropical Tibits.com
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