Friday, October 20, 2017

LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWING SOMETHING COMING UP FROM CARIBBEAN


12Z GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM BEING PULLED UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CMC MODEL WHICH IS NOT A GOOD INTENSITY MODEL TENDS TO EXAGGERATE AND TRACKS A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 

I LIKE THE CMC FOR MODEL FOR EARLY WARNING OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS NOT ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY OR GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

RTW



MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A DIP IN THE JET STREAM FOR THURSDAY!

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT THERE WILL BE A DIP IN THE JET STREAM BY NEXT THURSDAY THAT COULD POSSIBLY USHER IN COOLER AIR SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THOSE OF YOUR THAT WANT SOME COOLER AIR CROSS YOUR FINGERS.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 20, 2017 1021 AM EDT

TROPICS GIVING US A BREAK AS IT CHARGES UP TO RELEASE MORE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY BY NEXT WEEK.  I WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR HINTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAYBE A DEPRESSION TRACKING NORTH BETWEEN THE YUCATAN WESTERN CUBA AND MERGING WITH A FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS FLORIDA.  ANOTHER MODEL SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM MAYBE A HURRICANE TRACKING NORTH OVER CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

I DO HAVE TO CAUTION YOU THOU!  MODEL FORECAST CHANGE EVERY RUN AND I ALWAYS LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE, HOWEVER AT TIMES IT TURNS OUT NOT BEING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.  BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON AND OCTOBER IS MOST DEFINITELY A MONTH TO WATCH IF YOU LIVE IN CUBA AND FLORIDA YOU NEED TO BE STORM READY.  SO CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES.
RTW 

CAUTION...THESE FORECAST ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE SO DON'T PANIC WITH THE ONE THAT SHOWS A STORM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.







Thursday, October 19, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 19, 2017 11:25 AM EDT

The tropics remain quiet at this time but there are some models that are still hinting on tropical development in the Caribbean by end of next week.  Stay tuned for later updates.


 

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

MORE ON NEXT WEEK COLD WEATHER POSSIBILTIES


New ECMWF again showing 50s all over S next Thursday am- would be close to record of 55- probably too cold but I can dream.


A LOOK AT THE GFS AND EURO MODEL COLD WEATHER FOR EAST AND SOUTH

SEEMS LIKE GFS AND THE EURO MODEL ARE STILL HINTING AT A NICE DIP IN THE JET STREAM NEXT WEEK AT THAT DROP TEMPS FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING FLORIDA.  THIS COULD LAST INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.




TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MAP

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 18. 2017 1012 AM EDT

The tropics remain quiet for now but their are indications per long range MJO forecast that in 2 weeks we could see development in the Caribbean.  Stay tuned here and I will keep you updated.
RTW


Tuesday, October 17, 2017

MIAMI AND VICINTY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today Oct 17, 2017
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. East northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 77°F. East northeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday Oct 18
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat index around 89°F. Northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 77°F. East wind to 6 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday Oct 19
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. North northeast wind 4 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 78°F. East northeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Friday Oct 20
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 20 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 78°F. Windy, with an east northeast wind to 21 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Saturday Oct 21
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. East northeast wind to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 78°F. East wind to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday Oct 22
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. East southeast wind to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Oct 23
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 85°F. Heat index around 92°F. East southeast wind to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA





Local Radar

EURO MODEL STILL HINTING ON A TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST

Looks like the EURO model is still suggesting that the east coast and Florida will see cold air moving in for next week.  Looking forward to a change in temps its be too hot this summer and fall.




TROPICS QUIET FOR NOW! 1032 AM EDT 10/17/2017

All of the sudden the tropics became quiet.  Invest 92L no longer being tracked by NHC and the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico is now quiet for now.  

I am looking at some hints of Caribbean development by next week as a front drops south and sweeps what ever develops in the northwest Caribbean, across Cuba and South Florida if at all.  Stay tuned here and I will keep you posted...RTW



Saturday, October 14, 2017

TROPICAL OUTLOOK 1044 PM EDT 10/14/17

1.  ...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...NHC

2.  A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT TRACKS NORTH AWAY FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD.   BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR SINCE IT COULD COME CLOSE TO ISLANDS...RTW






TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0320 AM EDT 10/14/17

1.  OPHELIA STILL HANGING ON TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS AND SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

2. STORM INVESTIGATION 92L CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD.  RAINS IN SQUALLS SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD AS THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.  THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF GUST TO GALE FORCE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
RTW







Friday, October 13, 2017

THIS MODEL SUGGESTING COLD AIR FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST

THIS COLD AIR IS FORECAST FOR OCT 28, 2017


TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0336 PM EDT 10/13/17

1. I WILL POST OPHELIA TRACK MAP AS SOON AS IT IS READY AND WILL POST IT ON THE WEBSITE SITE.  JUST CLICK ON (RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS) AT TOP OF SITE WHERE NAVIGATION BUTTONS ARE LOCATED.  I ALREADY POSTED THE 18Z MODEL RUN THERE. 

2. AS FOR THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MAY BRING FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SQUALLS AS THE WAVES AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED THIS WAVE IS TRAVELING AT. 

THAT ALSO PRODUCES WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HINDERS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

SO FAR NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST.  BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND.
RTW