Friday, November 16, 2018
Please note what you see on surface map in yellow is what I added and is not official and part of what Intellicast WSI plubishes. I am just borrowing their maps. RTW
All I see in he tropics is the remnants of what use to be Invest 96L.
This area of disorganized showers is not showing signs of organization and will eventually be swept out to sea by up coming fronts. Mean while it will sit east of the Bahamas.
In the Caribbean there are no tropical waves just a trough of low pressure. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Tropical Wave and trough:
1. A westward moving tropical wave along 67 degrees west is interacting with a mid to upper level trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico.
This trough (invest 96L) is producing scattered showers and storms over Puerto Rico, the Caribbean and over the Atlantic waters to the northeast of east Dominican. Non of the models are suggesting development from this system and it will more than likely become absorbed by a front in the Gulf of Mexico forecast to sweep east across Florida. This system has a low chance for development 10% within 48 hrs and within 5- days.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Monday, November 12, 2018
000 ACCA62 TJSJ 121729 TWOSPN Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical Emitido por El Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami, FL Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan, PR 100 PM EST lunes 12 de noviembre de 2018 Para el Atlantico Norte...Mar Caribe y Golfo de Mexico: Una onda tropical localizada a alrededor de 200 millas al este de las Islas de Sotavento continua produciendo un area amplia de mal tiempo sobre la mayoria del Oceano Atlantico oeste tropical. Aunque se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales se tornen mas favorables para que se forme una depresion tropical durante los proximos dias, interaccion con tierra pudiera limitar la formacion de ciclon tropical. Se pronostica que el disturbio se mueva hacia el oeste a oeste noroeste durante los proximos dias, pasando cerca o al norte de las Islas de Sotavento, Puerto Rico, La Espanola, y el sureste de las Bahamas. Intereses en estas areas deben seguir de cerca el progreso de este sistema. * Probabilidad de formacion en 48 horas...mediana...50 por ciento * Probabilidad de formacion en 5 dias...alta...80 por ciento $$ Pronosticador Stewart
Sunday, November 11, 2018
An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W and south of 09N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the wave, enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W south of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is present 120 nm on either side of the wave axis. This activity is enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and south of 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 13N between 51W and 57W. A tropical wave extends its axis along Central America and the EPAC along 88W. No convection is observed with this wave at this time.
ABNT20 KNHC 111739 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Area being monitored:
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, these winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 43W and 48W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 34W and 41W. A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola, into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Friday, November 9, 2018
1. A tropical wave near 26-25 degrees west is not showing signs of organization at this time.
2. A tropical wave near 48-47 degrees west is passing through a westerly shear environment. There are no sign of organization at this time.
3. A tropical wave near 78-77 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time.
4. A tropical wave near 96-95 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization at this time. This wave over Mexico and a portion of the Bay of Capache will be moving out of the area. This will be the last update on this wave.
A trough near 68-67 degrees west is no longer Interacting with trough north of the Eastern Bahamas.
The trough near the Bahamas seems to be producing showers and storms to the east of the axis.
Area being watched by RTW:
I am monitoring an area east of the northeast Leeward extending northwestward to several 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. Although nothing is showing right now some models are hinting at low pressure developing in the region in the week to come.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
Thursday, November 8, 2018
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 20 degrees West is now void of any thunderstorms. There are no signs of organization.
2. A westward moving tropical wave near 48 degrees West has some showers along the north a axis of the wave. There are no signs of organization.
3. A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees West is also void of any thunderstorms. There are no signs of organization.
4. A westward moving tropical wave across 86-85 degrees west is also void of any thunderstorms. There are no signs of organization.
A surface trough near 65-64 degrees West is producing showers and storms along the northern axis of the trough just to the east of Puerto Rico. This surface trough seems to be Interacting with an upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico. Heavy rains with Gusty winds will spread over Puerto Rico later today as this trough tracks slowly westward.
Elsewhere in the tropics all remains quiet.
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
A strong area of showers and storms off the southwest African coast is rather unusual for this time of the season. However, conditions south of the 10 degree north is where the monzoon Trough is located and that has been one of the fuel source this season that has enhanced storms in this region. There are no signs of development, but I will monitor it as it tracks westward.
1. A westward moving tropical wave located near 43 degrees west is not showing signs of tropical cyclone formation.
2. A westward moving tropical wave near 68-67 degrees west is also not showing signs of formation.
3. A westward moving tropical wave near 82 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.
There is a surface trough near 57 degrees west that is firing up showers and storms to the southeast of the troughs axis. Southwesterly shear over the Southern Windward islands will prevent any organization at this time.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Monday, November 5, 2018
1. A westward moving tropical wave near 36 degree west. Showers and storm are east of the waves southern acis along the ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone). There no signs of tropical cyclone formation.
2. A westward moving tropical wave near 58-57 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.
3. A westward moving tropical wave near 73 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.
Eslewhere in the Atlantic all remains quiet through Wednesday...RTW
Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI