Wednesday, September 19, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 9, 2018... 0400 PM EDT

013 
AXNT20 KNHC 191745
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N 
southward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is associated with a 
distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered showers over Africa from 14N- 
18N between 12W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over 
the southern portion of the wave over the Atlantic from 05N-08N 
between 18W-25W.

A surface trough is over the the E Atlantic from 20N28W to 12N31W,
moving NW at 15 KT. This trough has no significant convection. It
is associated with a distinct 700 mb trough.  

A surface trough is over the Atlantic along 46W/47W from 12N 
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This trough may be developing a 
surface low. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-14N between
40W-50W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N southward, 
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-17N 
between 58W-64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from W Africa near 13N16W, to 12N19W. 
The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 08N30W to 07N45W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extent of a surface trough, the remnants of Isaac, 
is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is
over the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weak
surface ridging is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico with
axis along 28N.  

In the upper levels an upper level low is centered over S Texas
near 28N98W. Upper level diffluence is over the W Gulf. Scattered
showers are from 20N-25N between 95W-98W. The remainder of the
Gulf has mostly fair weather. 

The remnants of Isaac will move across the Yucatan Channel
today and move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant trough of Isaac extends from 22N86W to the Gulf of
Honduras near 16N88W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
the NW Caribbean N of 15N between 79W-89W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW 
Caribbean S of 15N between 77W-87W. The monsoon trough is along 
09N over Costa Rica and Panama enhancing convection. 

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. This tropical 
wave will move west across the central Caribbean Thu into Fri, 
and pass west of the area through late Sat into Sun. Strong gusts 
are possible near showers and thunderstorms associated with this 
tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean. 
Meanwhile high pressure building from the central Atlc into the 
central Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trade winds and 
building seas across the entire basin late Wed through Fri. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is off the coast of Georgia. Scattered
moderate convection is from 29N-31N between 74W-78W. A surface
trough is further E from 34N64W to 28N68W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of this trough. A 1022 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 28N49W. The remnant low of Joyce is over the
E Atlantic near 30N29W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
center. 

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the W Atlantic near 31N66W enhancing convection. 

Low pressure moving off the Carolinas tonight will drag an 
attendant frontal trough across the NW Atlantic waters north of 
27N Thu and Fri. The low will sink to near 31N67W Fri evening then
drift W and slowly weaken Sat and Sun. NE swell will dominate 
waters N of 26N over the weekend. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands has decreased some this morning.
Further development is becoming less likely since the environment is
becoming unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores.  After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE SEPT 18, 2018... PM EDT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
711 
WTNT35 KNHC 182028
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and
west through early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or
early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Campbell/Blake 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 18, 2018...0222 PM EDT

295 
AXNT20 KNHC 181741
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 31.6N 27.4W at 18/1500
UTC or 385 nm S of the Azores moving S at 7 kt. Joyce will 
gradually turn to the southwest and west over the next couple of 
days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gradual 
weakening is forecast during the next couple days, and Joyce is 
forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted between 60-90 nm northeast of the center and 
between 45-75 nm south of the center. Scatterometer data shows 
that the strongest winds are located in the northwest semicircle
of Joyce. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis 
along 57W/58W from Suriname to 18N, moving west at 20-25 kt. 
Model guidance indicates the wave is associated with a 700 mb 
trough and is well-defined on the TPW product. It is near the 
leading edge of an extensive area of dry Saharan air from 12N-24N
between 37W-57W. Only isolated showers are near the wave axis at 
this time. Moisture associated with the tropical wave is expected
to mainly affect the Windward Islands later today into early Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N30W to
near the coast of Suriname. Scattered to numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is within 300 nm south of the ITCZ from
20W-42W. Scattered moderate convection extends to within 60 nm 
south and 300 nm north of the ITCZ, between 42W-50W. The ITCZ is 
much more convectively active than 24 hours ago, especially 
between 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1015 mb surface high is over the western Gulf near 27N94W.
Another 1017 mb surface high is centered over northern FL near 
30N82W. Light to gentle breezes and minimal seas will continue 
over most of the Gulf during the next few days. An upper-level low
is near 26N94W with upper-level cyclonic flow covering the 
western Gulf. A surface trough, associated with the remnants of 
Isaac, is over the northwest Caribbean along 83W from western Cuba
to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. The trough will move 
across the Yucatan Channel through Wed, then across the Yucatan 
Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche late Wed into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough over the northwest Caribbean along 83W from western Cuba
to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua is associated with the 
remnants of Isaac. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
west and 120 nm east of the trough axis from 17N-21N. The trough
will move west of the area on Wednesday. A trough over the 
southeast Bahamas continues to enhance some shower and
thunderstorm activity across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.
High pressure building from the central Atlantic into the central
Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building 
seas across the entire basin late Wed through Fri. Near the coast 
of Colombia, fresh to strong winds are expected along with 9 ft 
seas through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
Tropical Depression Joyce.

An upper-level low with a surface reflection is spinning just
south of Bermuda. A surface trough extends from this feature 
southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are located along and east of the trough axis west
of 65W. This convective activity is affecting the southeast 
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Abundant cloudiness and 
showers extend elsewhere east of the trough from 20N-31N between 
56W-65W. The surface trough will likely weaken over the next 
24-48 hours. Another trough extends into the forecast area from 
T.D. Joyce southward to near 21N32W. A narrow band of mainly low 
clouds with showers is associated with the trough. A 1023 mb 
surface high is located in between the two aforementioned troughs 
near 31N47W.

A trough just inland over the southeastern U.S. will move 
eastward across the waters east of north-central Florida tonight 
through Wed night while weakening.

Hovemoller Diagrams and satellite imagery indicate that a new 
tropical wave is about to move off the coast of Africa. This wave 
will likely be added to the 18Z map.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen/GR
------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 17, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 17, 2018...0450 PM EDT

388 
AXNT20 KNHC 171747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Joyce centered near 34.0N 28.4W at 17/1500
UTC or 250 nm SSW of the Azores moving ESE at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery 
shows that Joyce is a sheared system under strong western vertical
shear. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the NE 
quadrant. Joyce is forecast to turn toward the southeast today, 
turn south on Tuesday, and then southwest on Wednesday. Some 
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is 
expected to become a remnant low Tuesday. See the latest NHC 
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model guidance indicates that the 
wave is associated with a 700 mb trough. The wave marks the 
leading edge of an extensive area of dry Saharan air with dust 
from 10N-25N between 15W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is 
over the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ from 05N- 10N 
between 38W-50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 
09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N48W to the coast of South
America near 08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
12N between 50W-60W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper-levels, a low is over the western gulf near 25N94W, 
and a high is centered over N Florida near 30N81W. Upper level
moisture is over most of the Gulf producing scattered high clouds.  
At the surface, a 1016 mb high is over the NW Gulf near 27N93W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. 05-10 kt SE to S
winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. The remnants of 
tropical cyclone Isaac, currently near Jamaica, will move west 
across Yucatan Channel on Wed and across the southwest Gulf waters
on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak area of low pressure, associated with he remnants of 
Isaac, is located just south of Jamaica. Showers and 
thunderstorms are currently limited, and any development should be
slow to occur during the next day or so. By Wednesday, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
re-development to occur when the system moves toward the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and 
gusty winds are possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
eastern Cuba during the next couple of days as the system moves  
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook gives the system a low chance of tropical cyclone 
development through the next 48 hours. Gentle trades are west of 
the Isaac remnants, while gentle to moderate trades are over the 
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. An upper level 
trough north of Hispaniola is also enhancing convective activity 
over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave currently along
46W is expected to enter the Caribbean Sea on Wed, accompanied by
fresh trades and building seas. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above, for details 
on Tropical Depression Joyce. Also refer to the tropical wave
section for a wave along 46W. 

A broad deep layer trough extends SW to NE across the central 
Atlantic from a large upper-level low centered near 27N65W. The 
upper-level low will move northward over the next couple of days.
At the surface, a 1013 mb low is near 25N66W with a trough 
extending southwest to near Hispaniola at 29N59W. The system is 
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough 
axis between 20N-30W and west of 50W. Well east of the trough, a 
1024 mb high is centered near 28N39W. The surface trough and low 
are forecast to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours as a ridge 
builds westward.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
----------------------------------------------------------------
 Sahara dust will suppress the Atlantic this could be the end to African storm systems.  Focusing now on the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico late September and October...RTW


 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 17, 2018...09/17/2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
566 
AXNT20 KNHC 171204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 34.2N 329.0W at 17/0900 
UTC or 250 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt 
with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Joyce is a 
sheared system under strong west to northwest vertical shear as 
noted by its deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of 
its center. The convection is defined as the moderate type intensity 
within 30 nm either side of a line from 35N25W to 35N29W. Overcast 
to broken low and mid-level clouds with embedded scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are well to the east and northeast of 
Joyce from 34N to 38N between 20W and 25W. Strong southwest to west 
winds aloft and dry air in its surrounding environment will continue 
to hamper Joyce over the next few days causing it to gradually 
weaken. Joyce is forecast by the latest NHC advisory to slow its 
forward motion while turning toward the southeast today, south on 
Tue, and southwest on Wed. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 43W
from 04N and 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model guidance 
indicates that the wave is moving through a pretty well pronounced
700 mb jet stream branch accompanied by a jet core of 30-45 kt 
east winds to the east of the wave axis. The wave marks the 
leading edge of quite an extensive area of Saharan Air for this 
time during the season. The African dust extends from 10N to 25N 
east of the wave to Africa. Dust that surrounded the wave has 
thinned out since yesterday as a surge of low-level moisture is 
on either side of the wave south of 15N to the ITCZ. This 
moisture surge consists of scattered showers and thunderstorms 
moving quickly westward from 10N to 15N between 38W and 44W, and 
within 120 nm either side of the wave in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
region from 04N to 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from well inland Africa southwestward
to the coastline of northwest Senegal near 17N16W and continues 
to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 06N30W to just west of 
the tropical wave along 43W. It resumes at 08N43W to 08N58W. 
Aside from the shower and thunderstorms activity associated with 
the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is seen within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 53W and 58W, 
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 45W and 49W, and within 60
nm south of the ITCZ between 51W and 53W. Similar convection is 
northwest of the ITCZ within 60 nm of a line from 09N58W to the 
coast of S America at 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper-levels, and elongated upper low is over the western 
gulf near 25N93W, with a trough extending northeastward to 
inland southeastern Louisiana and continues well northeastward of
the area. Another trough extends southeastward from the low to 
the eastern Bay of Campeche and the southwest Yucatan Peninsula. 
Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Gulf W of 90W. An 
upper level high is centered over the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. 
Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern Gulf. At the 
surface, a trough is just inland the coast of Mexico from 20N to 
near San Fernando. Plenty of atmospheric instability along with 
deep moisture in place is leading to scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms south of 25N and west of 94W to inland 
Mexico. A 1015 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. 
Relatively weak high pressure is across the basin. A surface 
trough extends southwestward from what is now Tropical Depression 
Florence located over the border of eastern Georgia, southwestward
to the Florida Panhandle. Scatterometer data highlighted light to
gentle anticyclonic flow west of 87W, and light to moderate south
to southwest flow east of 87W. Little change in surface Gulf 
winds is expected through the middle part of this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the central Caribbean from just
west of Haiti to a 1009 mb low near 17.5N76W, and southeastward
to near 13N74W. These features and related convection denote a 
broad area of low pressure associated with the former tropical 
cyclone Isaac. Abundant moisture and atmospheric instability, that
is further enhanced by the tail-end of a central Atlantic deep 
layer trough that extends to Haiti and to near 17N85W, remains 
entrenched across the central Caribbean and much of the eastern 
Caribbean. This is resulting in scattered moderate to strong 
convection from 16N to 18N between 75W and 76W, including the 
eastern portion of Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are elsewhere between 65W and 80W, while isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are east of 65W. The broad area low 
pressure remains disorganized. Only slow development will be 
possible during the next day or so due to proximity to dry air and
land interaction with Jamaica. By Wed, environmental conditions 
are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds 
will be possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern
Cuba during the next couple of days while the system moves west- 
northwestward to westward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
Gentle trades are west of the trough and low, while, gentle to 
moderate trades are elsewhere east of the trough. The central 
Atlantic tropical wave will move across the tropical waters east 
of the Windward Islands Tue and Tue night, and through the east 
Caribbean on Wed and Thu accompanied by fresh to strong trades and
building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above, for details 
on Tropical Depression Joyce.

A rather strong and broad deep-layer trough extends across the 
central Atlantic from a large upper-level low, centered near 
27N65W. Plenty of instability exists with this trough as it acts 
on a very moist atmosphere. The upper-level low is forecast to 
gradually move westward today, then move in a northward direction 
tonight through Tue. At the surface, a nearly stationary 1013 mb 
low is near 24N65W, with a trough extending northeastward to near 
30N59W, and southwestward to near 20N70W. To the east of this 
system, another surface trough extends from 29N50W to near 24N61W.
All of these features acting on the present very moist and 
unstable atmosphere are leading to the development of numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 19N to 26N between 
59W and 65W, and from 18N to 23N between 65W and 74W, including 
the Windward Passage and vicinity waters. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are also evident from 18N to 23N between 54W and 
59W, and from 26N to 32N between 50W and 56W. Any of this activity
is capable of producing very heavy rainfall as well as frequent 
lightning strikes. Drier air is present to the west of the upper- 
level trough and low, where only isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are noted.

A 1022 mb high is center over the central Atlantic near 28N39W, 
with a ridge extending southwestward to near 20N60W. Rather dry 
and stable conditions are present east of 50W, except near the 
tropical wave along 43W as described above. Also as stated above, 
a rather extensive batch of Saharan Air is observed over the 
eastern Atlantic from 10N to 25N between 15W and 45W. These 
conditions are contributing to the already dry and stable 
conditions supported by the high pressure that in place over that 
part of the Atlantic. The dust will continue to migrate westward 
during the next few days.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre/Formosa 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------



 A new surge or Sahara dust and dry air will more than likely suppress any activity that may try to form off the African coast.  Our attention should now be focused on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  RTW

ISP CONNECTION PROBELM AT WORK CONTINUES SEPT 17, 2018...0906 AM EDT

Well I tried opening my website builder at home and it works fine, so apparently they made some changes to the wifi here at work which does not allow for my website builder to load.  So I am not going to be able to update the website here at work during the day, unless they correct the problem on their end.  I may have to try using another Website builder instead or just stop using the website altogether and update my tropic images here on the blog instead.  I will see what else I can do in the mean time to prevent losing the website I built.  I apologize for the inconvenience.

RTW

Sunday, September 16, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 16, 2018...0508 PM EDT

001 
WTNT35 KNHC 162032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time,
the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then
the southwest away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate
into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, September 15, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 15, 2018 0543 PM EDT

CLICK BELOW FOR NHC WEBSITE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 HELENE

 JOYCE

 REMNANTS OF ISAAC
 NEW SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS

...FLORENCE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA CAUSING CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING RIVER FLASH FLOODING...

297 
WTNT31 KNHC 150241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EXTREME
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 79.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued north of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.8
North, longitude 79.1 West.  Florence is moving toward the
west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through early Saturday.  Florence is forecast to turn
westward and then northward through the Carolinas and to the Ohio
Valley by Monday.

Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is
forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple
of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently
reported at Lumberton, North Carolina.  A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at
Florence, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.  This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large
portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South
Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 




Friday, September 14, 2018

FLORENCE 5 PM EDT ADVISORY SEPT 14, 2018

985 
WTNT31 KNHC 142039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN
FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle
Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina,
including Albemarle Sound.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape
Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound.

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland
across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across
extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday.  Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening
is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence
moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to
to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean
Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft
Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also
over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern
South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


 Continuous training of rain in this area.  Rain bands being fed by Atlantic.  Gusting winds from 69-75 mph reported by radar.



FLORENCE A LIFE THREATENING FLOOD THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT 9/14/18 1128 AM EDT

920 
WTNT31 KNHC 141440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE JUST INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Duck, North Carolina, south to Bogue Inlet, including the
Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move
further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday.  Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight.
Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early
next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was recently
reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville
Beach, and a 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC...7-11 ft, with locally higher
amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 14 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



ISAAC UPDATE 9/14/18 1114 AM EDT

803 
WTNT34 KNHC 141431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  A turn to the west-northwest is possible
early next week if Isaac survives.  On the forecast track, Isaac
will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and
could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
depression.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and
Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake