Monday, March 18, 2024

..DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND A HEADS UP FOR FLORIDA ON POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FRIDAY..

 


Day-1 Severe Storm Outlook shows a Marginal Risk for a portion of Florida today as showers and storms will develop along a frontal boundary as it moves south through the state.  

As for Friday the GFS and EURO models are hinting at a low pressure system tracking east across Florida and bring with it the possibility of heavy rains, and strong to severe storms over the southern Peninsula.  I will continue to monitor it and will post here in the coming days.

The Storm Prediction Center does not have anything on this as of now, but if the models continue to show this they may post something as we get closer to Friday.

RTW

DAY-1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK


MARGINAL25,12910,931,195Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...

DAY-1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
2 %2,6491,292,270Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Jupiter, FL...

DAY-1 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
5 %20,0417,650,611Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Lakeland, FL...

DAY-1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
5 %25,19810,971,762Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Hollywood, FL...


AND HERE IS THE EURO AND THE GFS MODELS SHOWING HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS MOVING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.


Tuesday, March 12, 2024

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3 SLIGHT TO A MARGINAL RISK..



The Storm Prediction Center has a slight to marginal risk area days 1-3.  Check back later this morning and afternoon for the latest updates from SPC.

RTW

DAYS 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

DAY 1 RISK AREAS:
MARGINAL32,1262,551,479Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Independence, MO...Columbia, MO...Blue Springs, MO...

DAY 2 RISK AREAS:
SLIGHT26,5812,786,541Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
MARGINAL110,7765,480,039Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Columbia, MO...Broken Arrow, OK...

DAY 3 RISK AREAS:
SLIGHT190,58417,939,784Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL232,99629,775,781Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...

DAYS 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK DAY 3 PROBABILITY OUTLOOK

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

DAY 2 RISK AREAS:
SIG SEVERE105,51212,340,890Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 %190,90417,914,946Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 %230,88729,351,134Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...






















Friday, March 8, 2024

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAYS 1 AND 2 SLIGHT RISK HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL..

 


I HAVE ANIMATED DAYS 1 AND 2 SO I CAN SHORTEN IT A BIT. THERE  IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMGING HAIL AND WINDS.  STAY ALERT AND CHECK THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

RTW

DAY 1-2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK: 

THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN 

SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!

SLIGHT87,4356,385,970Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
MARGINAL139,29616,247,269Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

DAY 2 AREAS AT RISK:

SLIGHT120,24214,711,651Jacksonville, FL...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...
MARGINAL87,34916,477,832Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...

DAY 1-2 TORNADO OUTLOOK


DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK: 

THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN 

SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %51,3612,623,323Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Alexandria, LA...
2 %60,3256,216,535Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %124,48517,353,410Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...


DAY 1-2 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK


DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK: 

THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN 

SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

15 %54,6863,768,679Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Bossier City, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...
5 %116,37213,789,296Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

DAY 2 DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %72,7457,464,274Savannah, GA...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC...Macon, GA...

DAY 1-2 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK


DAY 1 AREAS AT RISK: 

THESE MAPS AND RISK AREAS WILL CHANGE OFTEN 

SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK SPC FOR THE LATEST!

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %84,0606,042,378Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
5 %142,81916,613,581Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %87,7578,524,057Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC...
5 %65,01613,950,301Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...Columbus, GA...


DAYS 1-2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK








Thursday, March 7, 2024

..SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARCH 7, 2024..

 


Slight risk for severe weather today so stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest updates.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK) STAY ALERT!


SLIGHT75,6585,945,721Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...
MARGINAL138,95810,844,092Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

DAY1 HAIL PROBABILITY (SIGNIFICANT RISK)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SIG SEVERE24,546456,015Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Brownwood, TX...Stephenville, TX...
15 %75,5525,904,414Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...
5 %138,85210,889,089Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
2 %67,1876,043,354Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Irving, TX...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
15 %41,9914,157,840Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...Waco, TX...
5 %107,3779,006,289Dallas, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...















..ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY WEDNESDAY MARCH 6 2024..

 


SPC has another Marginal risk area for a portion of Florida.  Satellite shows some storms developing over the left over from this mornings system.  So far models are not showing wide spread storms, but scattered isolated storms and some could be strong may be severe.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)



Mesoscale Discussion 0194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

   Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061801Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
   next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a
   half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL
   Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or
   so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating
   zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone
   of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the
   central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to
   near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values
   to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does
   indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample
   elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent
   through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition.

   Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but
   sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized
   updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will
   be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through
   23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km.
   However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z
   MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2
   amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak
   spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence
   is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal
   and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time.












Tuesday, March 5, 2024

..A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY..

 


Good morning!  Yesterday there was a General Thunderstorm outlook for today but over night SPC upgraded the outlook to a Marginal risk for Tuesday late evening.  I was reviewing the HRRR reflectivity model and it does not show much for today but I will monitor since SPC calls for a Marginal risk.

Tomorrow there is also a Marginal risk and the HRRR model does show strong storms moving over Miami Dade and Broward on Wednesday overnight between 300am and 400am.  

Water vapor satellite with Lightning shows plenty of energy with the storms that are over the Gulf.  That will be gradually tracking east toward Florida today and over night.  Stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest severe storm outlooks.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)


MARGINAL212,02726,614,333New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...


DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY (2%)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
2 %38,09615,287,934Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...


DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
5 %174,13611,332,706New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
5 %211,67626,596,005New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...


HRRR MODEL SHOWS STORMS TRACKING EAST OVER FLORIDA.  THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FOR TODAY THOUGH.  HOWEVER SPC CALLS FOR STORMS TODAY AS WELL AS TOMORROW.


THERE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE GULF.  WHITE AND BLUE IS THE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD AOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL