TROPICAL UPDATE 1253 AM EDT AUG 22, 2017

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212329
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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