TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE 18Z MODEL RUN 0344 PM EDT

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD KEEP JOSE FROM GETTING CLOSER LAND.  HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS CAN MAKE FOR HEAVY SURF ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.  COASTAL FLOODING IN HIGH TIDE ALSO POSSIBLE...RTW

SCENARIO#1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 BARES WATCHING IF YOU LIVE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES, BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, GREATER ANTILLES AND FLORIDA.  THERE IS SUPPOSE TO BE A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT JOSE WILL SUPPOSEDLY LEAVE BEHIND ITS WAKE.  IF THAT WERE THE CASE THEN TD 15 WILL MOVE INTO THIS WEAKNESS AND TRACK NORTH WAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST.  HOWEVER, THE LESSER ANTILLES PUERTO RICO WOULD BE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM BEFORE THAT TURN WOULD OCCUR.

SCENARIO #2 IF THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WERE TO BUILD WEST OVER THE CYCLONE THEN THE TRACK WOULD BE WEST TO A WEST NORTHWEST AND A POSSIBLE THREAT FOR THE GREATER ANTILLES AND FLORIDA.  I DON'T WANT YOU TO PANIC BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND REPLENISH ANY SUPPLIES YOU MAY HAVE USED AFTER IRMA...RTW

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM LEE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD STAY OUT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUT THE LATEST MODEL SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE AS WELL...RTW