HURRICANE JOSE and TROPICS Saturday update: Jose is on track. The center will likely pass well offshore of the North Carolina coast late Monday or early Tuesday. The winds will increase, but the current thinking is that winds over 40 mph will stay offshore. Still, the ocean will be turbulent and dangerous. As noted by the NHC below, a slight change in track could bring significantly worse weather to the coast.
Further north
the situation is analogous to a strong nor'easter. We can't be sure of
the exact track of the center of the storm, but it is likely that the
area covered by the nasty weather will expand. The odds of the edge of
the storm affecting the eastern end of Long Island are higher than New
York City, but the entire area could see disruptive weather on Tuesday.
Disruptive weather is also likely in southeastern New England with the wind and rain beginning Tuesday and peaking Wednesday. Be aware of your local advisories and warnings. Again, a strong nor'easter is the best way to think about the storm, with the acknowledgement that there is still a chance that the strong winds near the center of the storm could come ashore increasing the winds over the coast.
ELSEWHERE in the TROPICS, there is a new system called POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 15. It is called "potential" because it doesn't have an organized circulation yet, but that is expected to happen. In fact, this system - to be called MARIA once it organizes - is forecast to become a hurricane very quickly and threaten the northern Leeward Islands beginning late Monday.
Horribly, the same islands that were mauled by Hurricane Irma are in the path of this storm. Maria will not be anywhere as strong as Irma, but it will be frightening for people without adequate housing and supplies. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are also in the potential path of this storm.
In the distant future - meaning next weekend into the beginning of the following week - the possibilities range from a track toward Florida and the Gulf to a track up the East Coast or offshore.
Mother Nature is not letting up. Stay informed.
HERE ARE THE KEY MESSAGES ABOUT HURRICANE JOSE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11:00 AM ET:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
Disruptive weather is also likely in southeastern New England with the wind and rain beginning Tuesday and peaking Wednesday. Be aware of your local advisories and warnings. Again, a strong nor'easter is the best way to think about the storm, with the acknowledgement that there is still a chance that the strong winds near the center of the storm could come ashore increasing the winds over the coast.
ELSEWHERE in the TROPICS, there is a new system called POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 15. It is called "potential" because it doesn't have an organized circulation yet, but that is expected to happen. In fact, this system - to be called MARIA once it organizes - is forecast to become a hurricane very quickly and threaten the northern Leeward Islands beginning late Monday.
Horribly, the same islands that were mauled by Hurricane Irma are in the path of this storm. Maria will not be anywhere as strong as Irma, but it will be frightening for people without adequate housing and supplies. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are also in the potential path of this storm.
In the distant future - meaning next weekend into the beginning of the following week - the possibilities range from a track toward Florida and the Gulf to a track up the East Coast or offshore.
Mother Nature is not letting up. Stay informed.
HERE ARE THE KEY MESSAGES ABOUT HURRICANE JOSE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11:00 AM ET:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
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