GORDON AND FLORENCE SEPT 5, 2018... 1135 AM EDT

GORDON UPDATE BY NHC

227 
WTNT32 KNHC 051431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018

...GORDON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For more information on Gordon, please see products issued by your
local National Weather Service office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 90.2 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of
Gordon will move across the lower Mississippi Valley today and
tonight.  A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to
occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected as Gordon moves
farther inland.  Jackson, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust
of 35 mph (55 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
central Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois,
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Saturday.
This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these
areas.

WIND:  Wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur in showers
and thunderstorms associated with Gordon today.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two is possible through this evening over
Mississippi and western Alabama.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast
will gradually subside later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Gordon.  Future information on Gordon can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC

438 
WTNT31 KNHC 051439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 45.7 West.  Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next
week.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is
a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is
expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 Guidance models continue spread an uncertain forecast

 Noticing that NHC model more to the left than previous model run and  UKMET
continues to the left of NHC.  Euro model during this morning model run is also
back to the west and landfall in the Carolinas.  Big question mark to where it will
end up at this time.

The H- models also left with a bend back to the Northwest.  Could be picking up on rebuilding high pressure over the north Atlantic.

https://ralphstropicalweather.com/