Has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs and within 5- days. However, this system is going to encounter hostile conditions ahead as it tracks toward the west-northwest. Dry air ahead of this system will more than likely inhibit development. Model suggesting dissipation as it tracks over the islands or north of the islands.
I will be monitoring west of Africa below 10 deg latitude along the monsoonal trough which seems active with showers and storms. This trough is far enough south and is not being influenced by Sahara Dry Air and Dust. Models want to develop some lows along this trough. However,although some make it to the east Caribbean they seem to dissipate over the Central Caribbean. Still to far out in the future and this may never materialize. I will keep you posted...RTW
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