STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE JULY 30, 2019

Storm Investigation
July 30, 2019...1038 PM EDT
Ralph's tropical Weather-RTW

Two tropical waves are being monitored one in the Caribbean and the other west of the coast of Africa.

The Caribbean wave continues to redevelop showers and storms with a potential for flooding rains.  This system is accompanied by a weak low and there are no signs of organization.  This system is forecast to move over land and exit into the Atlantic.  So far none of the models are suggesting strong development as it tracks northwestward.  We will continue to monitor it.

The African wave has plenty of showers and thunderstorms along the southern axis of the wave this is associated with the waves interaction with a monsoon trough that runs across that area of the Atlantic along 10°North.  This wave will have a better chance for development as it approaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend.  Still to far out to tell what track it will take but so far if these Pesky high pressure in the North Atlantic persist a west to west northwest track would be the norm for these type of weather systems as they travel around the peripheral of the High pressure.  I am more interested in this system than the Caribbean system

RTW

 

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward with no significant development
during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, and portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive
for development by the weekend when the disturbance moves near
Florida and northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant
development of this system is expected for the next few days while
the it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.  Upper-level winds could
become more conducive for development by the weekend while the wave
continues westward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky