TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 30, 2029

Tropical update
July 30, 2019...0948 PM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Well there is a bit of good news with Caribbean system.  Upper level wind shear has increased over this area of the Caribbean and this has halted any chances for development at this time.  To be honest with you this system never had a chance with all these obstacles ahead of this weather system.  If it made itself across the Bahamas and Florida all we would see is showers may be some storms.  NHC gives this  system a 10% chance within 5-days.

As for the Atlantic wave I am seeing more models agreeing on development east of the Lesser Antilles and a track north of the Leeward and a re-curve toward the north and east away from the Bahamas and the east coast.  Only ones who would have to watch this system would be Bermuda.

I caution you though, this system is still to far out and forecast can change.  So we will continue to monitor it.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

498 
ABNT20 KNHC 302328
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas.
Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late
this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart