TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 31, 2019

Tropical Update
July 31, 2019...0955 AM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

1.  Tropical wave formerly INVEST 95L still producing scattered showers and storms as it tracks west-northwest.  These rains and storms will spread across the greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida by this weekend.  Upper level conditions are not favorable for development at this time.  NHC gives this system a LOW chance 10% within 5-days.

2.  A strong wave west of Cabo Verde continues to have a potential for tropical cyclone formation as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. This system is forecast to move around the peripheral of the High Pressure Ridge and track north of the Leeward Islands and re-curve north and east along the East coast.  Since this system is still to far out and there is no good fix on it at this time, it is difficult to say if these forecast will hold.  What I am noticing is that the turn north is now closer to Florida, the Northern Bahamas and the east coast.  So we will have to continue monitoring this wave as it gets closer to the Islands.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms stretching from Puerto Rico to the southeastern
Bahamas. This disturbance is forecast to move northwestward to
northward during the next several days, producing locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Florida. Conditions could become marginally conducive for
development over the weekend while the system turns northeastward
off the southeast U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. No significant development of
this system is expected for the next few days while it moves
westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast
to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could
form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 East Atlantic Satellite