TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2019

Tropical Weather Outlook
July 31, 2019...0356 PM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

1.  A strong westward moving near 32°/31° West, continues to exhibit the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the coming days.  Thus far this would be the healthiest wave this season and the first to reach tropical cyclone status in the eastern Atlantic this season.

This tropical wave is forecast to become a depression or tropical storm several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Three models suggest a close track to the northern Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico.  However, this keeps on changing since it is to far out to forecast with confidence.  After the system passes the Leeward Islands models suggest that a weakness in the high pressure due to several troughs moving off the Eastern U.S. coast will help turn the cyclone north and east out to sea.  Once again these are long range forecast and there is room for error.  So we need to monitor this one closely specially the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico.

NHC is giving this system a 60% chance for formation within 5-days.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 50°/49° West is moving through an area of dry air and seems to be void of any thunderstorms at this time.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave formerly Invest 95L is also lacking thunderstorms.  Most of the showers and storms are west of this wave and spreading across the the western Bahamas, Cuba and Jamaica.  Some of these storms are being enhanced by an Upper level low in the Eastern Gulf and are also affecting Florida at this time.  Looks like Florida will see an increase showers and storms from the Atlantic in the coming days as this system tracks northwest and north off the east coast of Florida

NHC gives this system a 10% chance for formation within 5-days.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from Puerto Rico to the
southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward to northward
during the next couple of days, producing locally heavy rainfall
over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida.
Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over
the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off
the southeast U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Little to no development of the wave is expected for
the next few days while it moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend and a tropical depression could form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky