DORIAN 05 PM EDT ADVISORY

DORIAN ADVISORY
08/30/19...0509 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER-RTW

THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS TRACK AS I ANTICIPATED. LETS HOPE THE EASTWARD TREND CONTINUES.

RTW


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 302049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 70.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 70.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and
continue into early next week.  On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning by Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila